WARC: Despite Gulf Crisis, U.S. Ad Market Expected To Remain Resilient.

A prolonged conflict in the Gulf region could jeopardize nearly $94 billion in expected global advertising growth over the next 18 months, according to a new analysis from marketing intelligence firm WARC, though the U.S. advertising market is expected to remain more resilient than most regions.

The report estimates that a worsening crisis centered on the Gulf and the continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could threaten $39.6 billion in global advertising growth this year and as much as $93.7 billion through 2027. WARC’s projections are based on advertising investment data from 100 markets and model a range of outcomes.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting at WARC and author of the study, said the economic effects of the conflict are already being felt around the world.

“As the Gulf Crisis stretches into its fourth month, global markets are now in damage limitation mode as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acts like a tax on consumers, lifting prices and squeezing real spending power,” McDonald said.

“If the conflict drags on — or further intensifies — these risks shift toward stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive, and food acutely exposed to higher production costs and weaker demand. The net effect is a grueling squeeze on margins that could put as much as $94 billion of anticipated ad market growth at risk over the coming 18 months.”

Despite those concerns, the U.S. advertising market is forecast to remain one of the strongest major markets in the world. WARC projects U.S. advertising spending will increase 9.5% in 2026 to $452.6 billion under its baseline outlook, aided by major events including the FIFA World Cup and the U.S. midterm elections.

Even under WARC’s most severe scenario, U.S. ad spending would still grow 7.2% this year. That would represent a loss of roughly $9.8 billion in anticipated growth, but it would leave the U.S. significantly better positioned than many other regions facing greater exposure to energy costs, trade disruptions and weakening consumer demand.

Globally, WARC now expects advertising spending to rise 11.5% to $1.39 trillion in 2026, an improvement from its previous forecast of 10.6% growth issued in March. The upward revision reflects strong performance from digital advertising platforms during the first half of the year.

However, WARC warned that higher transportation and energy costs resulting from the Gulf conflict are expected to place increasing pressure on consumers and businesses during the second half of the year.

Latin America currently leads all regions in projected advertising growth, with spending expected to rise 12.8% in 2026. However, WARC said the region is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged disruption, with growth potentially falling to just 3.4% under its severe scenario.

The report identified travel, automotive and food as the sectors most exposed to the economic consequences of a prolonged conflict. Travel advertising is already expected to decline 3.5% globally this year, making it the weakest-performing major category.

Automotive advertising is also under pressure from rising manufacturing costs and softer consumer demand. Food advertising remains relatively strong for now, with spending projected to rise 10.3% globally, though WARC expects supply-chain pressures to become more visible in late 2026 and throughout 2027.