Political Ad Spending Forecast Raised To Record $11.6 Billion.

The 2026 election cycle had already been expected to set spending records, but the scope of the dollars flowing has led the ad-tracking firm AdImpact to boost its outlook. It now expects total spending to reach $11.6 billion by Election Day, an increase from its earlier $10.8 billion forecast released last fall.

“This election cycle is on track to be the most expensive on record,” the firm says in a new report that estimates total spending will climb 4% compared to the 2024 presidential election cycle. “Current spending is pacing well ahead of previous years, with multiple record-breaking races already concluded before June and early pre-booking numbers indicating activity will remain strong through the fall,” it says.

Radio is expected to capture $273 million in political ad spending, according to AdImpact. While radio’s share remains largely unchanged from the past, stations stand to gain from the record levels of spending anticipated during the current election cycle.

The biggest share has traditionally gone to broadcast television, and despite the cord-cutting that channel is still forecast to be the biggest recipient of political dollars. AdImpact estimates broadcast TV will net $5.6 billion during the cycle, with another $1.4 billion spent on cable TV and $88 million on satellite TV. But in a nod to the changing viewing habits, Connected TV is likely to get more than either one — with its tally expected to reach as much as $2.6 billion.

While analysts say broadcast TV will remain “a cornerstone” of the fall advertising landscape, CTV’s the fastest-growing media type due to the ability to reach granularly targeted audiences at scale. That has made it particularly valuable for House advertisers navigating redrawn districts.

Digital spending has been revised upward to $1.6 billion, a 9% increase over original projections. Analysts point to down-ballot races and issue advocacy advertisers for the jump as they use digital for audience targeting and fundraising.

Behind the forecast revisions are an evolving political map as some states become in play while others move out of reach for one party or the other. Redistricting has also shuffled the equations. The states with the biggest increases are largely those with multiple competitive statewide races. AdImpact expects much more robust spending in states like Ohio, Texas and Maine, as expectations have been tempered in Florida, North Carolina and New York.

Overall, analysts project $3.4 billion will be spent on Senate campaigns, $2 billion will be spent on House races, $2.4 billion will be spent on gubernatorial elections, with another $698 million expected to be spent on state legislative elections. They also forecast $3 billion will be invested on other down-ballot races, referendum and ballot initiatives.

One race in particular is predicted to be record-setting. AdImpact forecasts $446 million will be spent in the Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, making it the most expensive race on the 2026 calendar.

Senate races are likely to receive much of the media attention, but analysts say spending on House races has grown cycle over cycle. Two years ago, it set a new record at $1.7 billion. The wave of redistricting has led the firm to cut its outlook by $200 million from its earlier forecast as more than two dozen races have become less competitive.

At the same time, gubernatorial spending has surged by 25% in the updated projections driven by a handful of marquee races on pace to set new records. That includes elections in California, Georgia, and Iowa. “The 2026 governor's cycle is on pace to be the most expensive in history,” analysts predict.

A case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court could also have significant implications for political spending. If justices strike down federal limits that govern how much party committees can spend in coordination with congressional candidates, it would allow the use of hybrid ads that allow campaigns and committees to share costs while still qualifying for the lowest unit rates.

The ultimate impact remains unclear. While that could be a hit for stations, analysts say such a change could also shift more ad dollars toward candidate-rate buys, potentially increasing demand for broadcast inventory in competitive races while also creating additional pressure on per-spot pricing.