S&P Global: Radio Industry Finds Growth In Podcasts.

The U.S. radio industry is undergoing a structural shift, with traditional spot advertising revenue either flat or declining, while digital platforms such as podcasting, streaming, and connected device integration are driving revenue growth.

According to a blog post by Head of Kagan Research at S&P Global Justin Nielson, “Broadcast Outlook 2025: Challenges, Opportunities Facing US TV, Radio Stations,” radio’s core strengths include lower advertising costs, a local audience base, and relatively high return on investment compared to other media. However, the national and local spot ad markets are expected to decline over the forecast period.

“Radio’s smaller share of political ad revenue compared to TV makes it more dependent on core ad trends, with top-performing categories including investment/retirement, quick service restaurants, supermarkets, commercial banking and hospitals,” Nielson writes. “Although traditional auto ad spending is challenged by high interest rates, service and parts advertising continue to be reliable revenue streams.”

S&P says National spot ad revenue is projected to fall by 5% to $1.76 billion in 2025 and decline by an additional 3.5% to $1.7 billion in 2026. The figure is expected to stabilize at $1.48 billion by 2030. Local spot advertising is forecast to contract 4% to $7.66 billion in 2025, followed by smaller annual declines before a modest recovery to $7.17 billion by 2030.

To adapt, S&P says, radio station owners are increasing investments in streaming, podcasting, and digital marketing services. Digital revenue is projected to grow 6.5% in 2025 to $1.75 billion, reaching $2.31 billion by 2030. Off-air revenue, which includes live events, is also expected to grow, reaching $2.78 billion by the end of the decade.

Despite competition from streaming and satellite radio, traditional radio remains a popular medium, S&P says, creating new opportunities in areas such as personality-driven podcasts.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Kagan unit projects podcast advertising revenue will grow 22% in 2025, surpassing $1 billion.

Some radio groups are shifting their strategies away from cost-cutting toward investments in new talent and programming formats, S&P says. But the sector still faces competitive challenges, including low entry barriers for digital personalities and increasing fragmentation of the audio market.

“Radio’s enduring appeal lies in its local reach, trust and digital integration, which advertisers value despite increasing competition,” Nielson writes. “As music becomes commoditized, radio personalities are crucial for audience engagement and attracting advertising dollars.”

National core advertising trends for both radio and TV station owners are expected to benefit from easier year-over-year comparisons in the second half of 2025, S&P says.

Political advertising continues to be a significant source of revenue, with a projected record of $4.12 billion in 2024. The 2026 midterm election cycle is forecast to generate $3.77 billion in political ad revenue.

“Over the past decade, radio advertising has shown resilience in local markets but faces structural challenges from digital disruption and evolving consumer habits,” Nielson explains. “Radio’s reliance on core ad trends, particularly in the auto and retail sectors, is heightened by its smaller share of political ad revenue compared to TV, leading to a shift in ad budgets towards digital platforms.”

S&P’s market-level projections indicate the five fastest-growing radio markets between 2025 and 2030, based on CAGR, will be Daytona Beach, FL (1.62%); Jacksonville, FL (1.51%); Fort Pierce-Stuart-Vero Beach, FL (1.47%); Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL (1.45%); and Austin, TX (1.43%).