Report: U.S. Advertising Enters ‘Golden Age’ With Record Growth Ahead.

The U.S. advertising industry is entering what analysts describe as a new “Golden Age,” fueled by strong digital performance, expanding advertiser participation, and the growing dominance of major technology platforms, according to a new report from MoffettNathanson.

The report projects that U.S. ad spending will grow 12.9% in 2026, surpassing 2024’s 12.6% increase, which had been the strongest annual gain since 1983. Over the next three years, total ad spending is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate of about 11%, a pace not seen since the late 1990s.

“The U.S. advertising market is in the midst of a structural renaissance, the Golden Age,” the report states.

Analysts argue the current expansion differs from past cycles, particularly the dot-com era, because it is grounded in measurable returns on advertising spend rather than speculation. As a share of gross domestic product, ad spending is forecast to reach 1.45% in 2026 and climb to 1.58% by 2028, exceeding the previous peak of 1.43% set during the early 2000s.

A key driver of this growth is the increasing concentration of ad dollars among a small group of technology companies. Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have accounted for 96% of U.S. ad spending growth over the past decade and currently capture about 65% of total ad spending. That share is expected to rise to 72% by 2028.

According to the report, these companies benefit from global scale, extensive first-party data, and advanced targeting and measurement capabilities, allowing advertisers to track performance more precisely than in traditional media.

“At its core, U.S. advertising is being driven by a handful of performance ad platforms,” the report notes. “Advertisers pay for performance, and these platforms keep delivering it.”

Artificial intelligence is expected to further strengthen this position by improving ad targeting, automating campaign management, and increasing engagement through better content recommendations. The report says such innovations are making advertising more efficient and reinforcing a cycle in which improved performance leads to increased spending.

Digital advertising continues to outpace traditional media channels by a wide margin. Between 2019 and 2025, online ad spending grew by $187 billion, while linear television lost approximately $18 billion in ad revenue. Ad-supported streaming platforms, or AVOD services, recaptured about two-thirds of that decline.

By 2025, online advertising accounted for roughly 59% of the U.S. market, up significantly from six years earlier. Retail media and streaming have been among the fastest-growing segments, while traditional channels such as television, newspapers, magazines, and audio have either stagnated or declined.

The report forecasts continued growth in digital channels through 2028, with social media and retail media leading gains. In contrast, traditional media is expected to face ongoing pressure, including a projected 2% decline in audio advertising and steeper drops in print.

Despite the strong outlook, analysts caution that macroeconomic and geopolitical risks could affect near-term performance. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and broader economic uncertainty remain potential headwinds, particularly if they lead to reduced consumer spending or a pullback in advertising budgets.

“For now, channel checks point to business as usual,” the report states, noting that advertisers have largely maintained spending levels due to continued strong returns.

The resilience of ad budgets, even amid recent tariff-related volatility, suggests advertisers are increasingly reluctant to cut spending. “Blinking is expensive,” the report notes, reflecting a belief that maintaining visibility is critical in a performance-driven environment.

Overall, the findings point to a structural shift in the advertising market, with digital platforms expanding both the size of the market and their share of it. As long as measurable returns remain strong, analysts expect the current growth cycle to continue.