Ad Spend Surge In May Signals Strong Second Half As Digital Drives Growth.

In a positive sign for the direction of ad spending in the second half, the third quarter has begun with a bit of momentum. The ad tracking firm Guideline says total spending climbed 4.4% in May compared to a year ago. That was an improvement over the 3.4% increase logged for April. The uptick comes as several forecasters have in recent weeks revised their 2025 outlooks, concluding the impact of the tariffs has not been as severe as first thought.

“Economic activity is only correlated with growth in advertising but doesn’t necessarily cause it,” says Madison and Wall analyst Brian Wieser in a recent note to clients. “Perhaps the best way to think about the role of the economy in the current advertising market is that the industry is growing well right now despite the current economy and its likely trajectory rather than because of it.”

After several earlier downgrades, Wieser now sees growth of 6% for the U.S. ad market this year. Similarly, Magna has a more optimistic outlook, predicting U.S. ad spending will reach an all-time high of $398 billion in 2025, growing 4.6% compared to a year ago. And WPP Media says U.S. ad revenue are expected to jump 5.6%.“As chaotic as the world may seem, advertising remains resilient,” it said in a report released last month.

The latest Guideline numbers shows that many Main Street decision-makers agree. The latest data shows advertisers beyond the top ten boosted their ad spending 9.6% during May compared to a year ago. That is especially promising for radio, where roughly eight of every ten revenue dollars comes from local sales. Guideline says the top ten advertisers returned to growth mode in May after pulled back in April, but only barely. It says the biggest marketers increased spending 0.4% year-to-year.

Guideline’s U.S. Ad Market Tracker shows digital once again is where the biggest pace of growth in May. It says digital spending by U.S. advertisers increased 11.4% compared to a year earlier. That helped to make up for a 10.5% decline in traditional media ad spending. Digital’s share of overall spending edged up a point to 72% after a soft start to the year.

Guideline’s U.S. Ad Market Tracker is a composite monthly index from Standard Media Index, designed to provide a real-world measure of U.S. ad spending, based on actual invoiced media buys — including radio — from the major agencies and their clients. As such, it is mostly representative of spending by larger national advertisers.

The data is powered by Standard Media Index (SMI) and covers radio, television, digital, print, and out-of-home media types. It is based on actual spending data from the SMI pool partners at major holding companies and large ad agencies, representing 95% of all U.S. national brand ad spending.

See Guideline’s U.S. Ad Market Tracker HERE.