Spending Forecasts Show That 'Advertisers Still See Value In Radio.'

BIA Advisory Services' updated local media spending forecasts for 2025 may show over-the-air radio's ad spend down 6.6% and digital radio up 1.1% year-over-year, when including political ad spend – while down 2.4% and up 4.5% respectively, excluding political – yet there is still good news for radio looking into the future, according to BIA's recent webinar in conjunction with Marketron.

“That drop [excluding political] tells us that advertisers still see value in OTA, especially as a part of a multi-platform strategy,” BIA Advisory Services VP Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele says. “OTA's [overall] revenue drop is largely because of the expected decrease in political activity in 2025 compared to 2024, combined with macroeconomic pressures like rising tariffs and elevated interest rates.”

Marketron CEO Jimshade Chaudhari adds, “Even though we're seeing a slight decline here, which is a trend that we've been seeing for a bit now, [radio is] still a really strong medium, and it's incumbent on us to make sure that advertisers recognize the benefits that radio advertising brings, not only stand-alone but also in conjunction with digital. It's still one of the best mediums to reach the masses, and it's a trusted medium, one that has a strong ROI or return on ad spend (ROAS).”

Addressing digital's growth, Chaudhari says “that just proves that stations can win share when they compete as digital sellers,” while Mele notes that “advertisers are leaning more heavily into the digital extensions of traditional channels, recognizing the value of targetability, tracking and flexibility that digital radio platforms can offer.”

BIA's analysis points out that 2025's top five spenders on OTA and digital radio are the same: investment and retirement advice, quick serve restaurants, supermarkets and other grocery stores, commercial banking, and hospitals. Other verticals to watch, it says, are legal services, automotive, and real estate.

“Radio has done a good job of convincing these top OTA spenders to also spend on digital, because they understand that a combined campaign performs much better than either one on its own,” Chaudhari says. “You're going to see that digital dollars actually start to grow and OTA stay consistent, because it's the top-of- the-funnel tactic that drives awareness, where digital is bottom of the funnel, that helps you take that awareness and turn it into conversions.”

Focusing the the upcoming holiday shopping season, the webinar notes eMarketer's expected 1.2% year-over-year lift in holiday sales, during a season with Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday all falling later than usual. “Consumers will start as early as October, but they will also shop later,” Mele says. “What that means for advertisers is that they need to start early, and sellers should guide them to build multi-channel strategies that include OTA [and] digital radio, not just to reach target audiences they have in mind, but also connect with new consumers who might not know about them yet, or who are still exploring.”

BIA's initial projections for 2026 show expected rebounds for OTA and digital, primarily due to increased political spending with House and Senate seats, governorships and attorney general races on the ballot.

“You can't treat this as a one-year sugar high,” Chaudhari says. “The political spending is going to help your '26 numbers, but the key opportunity and challenge is, how do you use that momentum to drive your success in '27 where those same political dollars aren't going to be there?” Mele suggests that “the best verticals will go in terms of weight of growth, not necessarily size of spend. [Aside from political] there is also online gambling, amusement parks and arcades, real estate development and full service restaurants. Sellers should start building relationships now with advertisers from these industries, because while they are not necessarily the highest spending, they are expected to significantly grow.”