S&P Global Sees Steady Expansion In Smart Home Devices As AI Advances.

The growing adoption of artificial intelligence and Apple’s expansion into the smart home market could help accelerate growth in a sector that has expanded gradually but steadily, according to a new forecast from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

The research firm projects U.S. smart home device shipments will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 4.6% from 2025 through 2030, reaching 105.8 million units. Annual shipments totaled an estimated 84.4 million units in 2025.

Neil Barbour, a TMT industry analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said smart home technology has demonstrated staying power among consumers who have already installed connected devices, making the category strategically important for companies seeking to expand their technology ecosystems and introduce more artificial intelligence applications.

“Smart home adoption has been gradual rather than explosive, but the category has shown staying power where devices are already installed,” he says. “That makes the market strategically important for companies like Apple, which can use the smart home to strengthen ecosystem integration and expand AI touchpoints.”

The forecast calls for growth in eight of nine smart home device categories through 2030. Kagan expects the installed base of U.S. smart home devices to increase from 398.8 million units in 2025 to 563.7 million in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 7.2%.

The expanding installed base could also support replacement purchases as consumers upgrade older equipment to gain access to new features and capabilities.

Smart lighting is expected to remain the largest category by device volume. Kagan projects its installed base will reach 127 million devices by 2030, with annual shipments totaling 20.4 million units.

Cameras and motion sensors are forecast to rank second, with an installed base of 88.9 million devices and annual shipments of 18.7 million units in 2030.

Speakers and hubs are projected to reach 83.8 million installed units by the end of the forecast period. However, annual shipments are expected to increase only marginally to 14.4 million units, as household penetration for the category is forecast to remain at 36%.

Xperi’s TiVo Platform Technologies expanded its arrangement with iHeartMedia in early 2026, adding the iHeartRadio streaming app to the TiVo OS platform used by smart TVs from Sharp, Panasonic and other manufacturers. The integration gives U.S. users access to streaming music, live radio and podcasts through their televisions.

Meanwhile, Edison Research’s The Infinite Dial 2025 report found that 35% of Americans ages 12 and older, or an estimated 101 million people, owned a smart speaker in 2025. That was up slightly from 34% in 2024 but below the peak of 36% recorded in 2023. Ownership rose from just 7% in 2017 to 33% in 2021 before stabilizing.

The report also found that 18% of smart speaker owners had listened to audio through their devices in the previous week, suggesting ownership does not necessarily translate into regular audio use. Edison Research conducted the survey in January 2025 among 5,020 Americans ages 12 and older.