Political Ad Cycle Spending Poised For Record $10.8 Billion.

In the middle of the holiday season, voters in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district are being asked to do something unusual — vote. A special general election schooled for Dec. 7 will also mean an early holiday bonus for media outlets, as political ad dollars remain flowing in the race between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn.

AdImpact reports $2.7 million in spending so far in the eight-county district that includes parts of the Nashville and Clarksville, plus more rural areas. It has been a traditional Republican stronghold, and AdImpact says GOP advertisers currently hold a $776,000 spending advantage. Several big groups have gotten involved in the race, which could help bump up spending in the coming weeks.

The bigger fight was during the primary, when $3.6 million was spent by Republicans who are seeking to succeed former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned to take a private sector job in July. Democrat spending during the primary totaled $428,000.

Spending Beyond Tennessee

AdImpact says $1.72 billion has already been spent since January in the election cycle that runs through next year’s mid-term elections. That is 50% more than the $1.15 billion that had been spent up to this point four years ago. Radio has captured an estimated 2.5% share or $41 million of the total.

Overall, the Nov. 4 elections were the sixth-biggest November elections ever, in terms of what was invested on advertising. The ad tracking firm says across the biggest races in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, California and Pennsylvania, Democrats held $256 million to $157 million spending advantage over the GOP.

AdImpact reports total off-year spending was up 16%, largely driven by gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, the redistrict proposition in California, and the New York City mayor’s race. Spending on gubernatorial races hit $324 million in 2025, up nearly $100 million from 2021. New Jersey alone surpassed $200 million, only the second gubernatorial campaign to do so in U.S. history.

On the West Coast, California’s Prop 50 resulted in $137 million in total spending. That made it the second most expensive ballot proposition on record, trailing only California’s 2022 mobile gaming proposition.

Looking to the year ahead, AdImpact predicts spending in the 2026 cycle will hit $10.8 billion driven by a battle for control of Congress — with the redistricting efforts across the country only boosting spending even more.

Analysts expect broadcast television will get about half of the spending — $5.28 billion—with CTV to absorb another $2.48 billion. AdImpact says CTV is the only media type it expects will pull in more political ad dollars in the currently cycle, as it grabs a bigger share of television dollars in particular.

The outcome of redistricting efforts will have significant influence in political advertisers' buying strategies. Analysts also think what is happening with so-called “hybrid ads” at the Supreme Court could too. What are known as “hybrid ads” allow a candidate and campaign group to split costs. They may stretch campaign dollars, but the ads must address national issues as well as the specific candidate, which could limit a politician’s messaging options. AdImpact says hybrid advertising spending has grown 300% between 2018 and 2024.

Hybrid ads have been used more by Republicans, and Democrats have challenged the format at the Supreme Court. Analysts predict that if the Court shifts the rules, as much as $200 million be directed into individual campaign budgets.