The Presidential election gets the headlines, but the U.S. Senate races are more likely to benefit radio with hundreds of millions of dollars in spending and “historic” levels of ad reservations set to begin flooding the airwaves after Labor Day, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. To date, just under $1 billion – $973 million – has been spent on Senate general election advertising in the 2024 cycle. But that is literally just the half of it.
AdImpact says in the seven states most widely considered tossup states, there is another $924 million in ad reservations on the books in U.S. Senate races. Ohio is by far the biggest battleground, with $279 million in ad spending and reservations, which AdImpact says has already made it the most expensive Senate general election on record. Ads supporting incumbent Sherrod Brown (D-OH) total $147.4 million, while ad support for challenger Bernie Moreno totals $132.2 million.
Pennsylvania’s Senate race ranks second, with $209 million in spending and reservations. That puts the race between incumbent Bob Casey (D-PA) and challenger David McCormick at No. 6 on the all-time most expensive Senate elections list. AdImpact says Casey has the spending edge right now, with $114.1 million in ad reservations versus $94.9 million for McCormick.
Late primary dates help explain why Senate contests in Arizona and Wisconsin lag behind other states. Arizona only has $56 million of ad time reserved, and Wisconsin has $50 million.
The analysis shows three-quarters (76%) of total Senate general election spending comes from issue groups. On the candidate side, the top five spenders have been Democrats. Ohio’s Sherrod Brown leads with $44 million, followed by Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, whose campaign has spent $33 million. They are followed by incumbents John Tester (D-MT), who has spent $23 million, and Jackey Rosen (D-NV), who has spent $22 million.
Overall, AdImpact says the 2024 election cycle has now seen $4.1 billion in ad spending through Aug. 16. That compares to $3.24 billion of ad spending by mid-August four years ago. The ad-tracking firm says another $1.8 billion is on the books through Election Day.
Still, the most money has been funneled to the Presidential race. AdImpact says $989 million has been spent by the candidates and outside groups. That’s followed by elections in Ohio ($151.7 million) and Montana ($98.2 million), the Kentucky governor’s race ($93.1 million), and the Pennsylvania Senate election ($90.8 million).
The firm has revised its political ad spending projections upwards from $10.2 billion to a predicted record-breaking $10.69 billion. If that figure proves accurate, it would be a 19% increase from the $9.02 billion spent during the 2020 cycle. The ad tracking firm predicts radio’s share of spending this cycle will be 3.5%, adding up to about $381 million.
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