Consumers Plan To Spend More This Holiday Season.

Thirty-five percent of U.S. consumers plan to spend more during the 2026 holiday season than they did in 2025, with inflation driving higher gift costs cited as the leading reason, according to a new study from advertising technology company Basis.

Among consumers planning to spend more, 64% said inflation is the primary reason for their increased spending. The study also found that 83% of shoppers decide on a holiday gift within a few days or less after first discovering it.

The findings come from Basis’ 2026 Winter Holiday Shopping Trends study, based on a national survey of 2,006 U.S. consumers ages 16 and older conducted in May. The study was produced in partnership with audience research firm GWI.

Among consumers planning to spend less this holiday season, 47% cited concerns about the economy, 44% said they have more expenses to prioritize and 39% pointed to uncertainty about the future.

Political and geopolitical developments also are influencing holiday plans. Forty-five percent of respondents said such changes have altered their holiday outlook. Among those consumers, 57% said they are looking more actively for deals and discounts, while 33% said they are setting stricter budgets.

Consumers expect to use a mix of online and in-person shopping. Forty-two percent plan to shop equally online and in person, while 34% expect to shop mostly online with some in-person shopping.

Social commerce also is growing. Nineteen percent of consumers said they are likely to purchase directly through social media in 2026, up from 11% in 2025. Gen Z leads the trend at 33%, followed by Millennials at 27%.

Digital tools are increasingly part of the gift-discovery process. Seventy-one percent of 2025 holiday gift buyers used a digital tool to find gift ideas, including 51% who used search, 44% who used social media and 23% who used AI.

AI use was highest among younger consumers. In 2025, 38% of Gen Z and 27% of Millennials reported using AI for holiday gift discovery, compared with 23% of Gen X and 9% of Boomers.

For the 2026 holiday season, 17% of shoppers plan to use AI, primarily to find deals, generate gift ideas and compare products. However, 60% said they do not plan to use AI for holiday shopping. Among those likely to use or open to using AI, 42% said they do not expect to let AI purchase a gift on their behalf.

The study also found that 68% of consumers plan to shop early to avoid delays, while 57% shop year-round to take advantage of deals. Fifty-six percent plan to participate in Black Friday and Cyber Monday, although 54% said those events are not critical because deals are available throughout the season.

“The differentiator for brands during the 2026 holidays will be from understanding how consumers make decisions. Research from Basis confirms that influence is built over a long, distributed season, and not at a single peak moment,” said Maggie Nemoy, VP of research and insights, Basis. “People begin the discovery journey digitally — through search, social, and now AI — before they ever interact directly with a brand. Winning the season requires being present early, capturing emotion and showing up consistently across channels, which can be aided by synchronizing media strategy and activation.”

Basis said brands should maintain a strong digital presence throughout the extended holiday season, emphasize emotional and culturally relevant messaging, increase social commerce investment and focus on building consumer trust as AI becomes more prevalent in shopping.