BIA: Political Spending, Streaming Drive Higher Outlook For U.S. Local Ad Market.

U.S. local advertising revenue is now expected to grow more than previously projected in 2026, driven by strong performance in digital channels and a surge in political spending, according to an updated forecast from BIA Advisory Services.

The firm said total local ad revenue will reach $184.5 billion in 2026, representing approximately 8.1% year-over-year growth vs. 2025. The revised outlook is higher than BIA’s earlier estimate of $181.7 billion, issued in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The increase is attributed to stronger-than-expected results in mobile advertising — particularly social media — as well as gains in video, streaming, advertising technology and political ad spending. Excluding political advertising, BIA now forecasts 2026 revenue at $176.1 billion, up from its prior estimate of $172.7 billion.

“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,” said Senan Mele, vice president of forecasting and data analysis at BIA Advisory Services. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”

Political advertising is expected to play a significant role in the year’s growth. BIA projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political ad spending, creating revenue opportunities across broadcast television, linear cable, connected TV and over-the-top platforms, radio and direct mail.

Beyond election-driven spending, BIA identified both short- and long-term factors shaping the local advertising economy. In the near term, political campaigns are expected to provide a substantial boost. Over the longer term, growth is anticipated across key industry verticals, including real estate, restaurants, travel, retail and financial services.

Looking ahead, BIA projects total local advertising revenue will exceed $222 billion by 2030.

“The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy,” said Rick Ducey, managing director at BIA Advisory Services. “Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”

The updated forecast also highlights ongoing changes in how advertisers allocate budgets. Digital channels — particularly mobile, social media and connected TV — are driving much of the growth, while traditional media outlets continue to provide broad reach and brand impact.

As part of the revision, BIA adjusted its methodology to better reflect industry changes, including the addition of Digital Out of Home (DOOH) as a standalone category rather than grouping it with traditional out-of-home advertising. The move underscores the growing role of digital, programmatic and location-based media in local campaigns.

While some legacy formats, including print, continue to experience long-term declines, others are adapting to new market conditions. Advertisers are increasingly adopting full-funnel strategies that combine high-reach platforms such as broadcast television, cable and out-of-home with data-driven digital channels to deliver both brand awareness and measurable results.

Radio, BIA noted, remains a stable local medium, with additional growth opportunities emerging through digital audio formats such as streaming and podcasts.

“Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming. The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals,” added Mele.