Presidential primary ad spending may have been a bust compared to previous years, but the 2024 election cycle is gaining momentum. The numbers are likely giving forecasters confidence in their predictions that a record amount will be spent. In New York, another record fell as a congressional district fight has become the most expensive House primary on record.
AdImpact says $24 million has already been spent in the race that pits incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) against Democrat and former Westchester County, NY Executive George Latimer. The battle has become a proxy fight between the left and center of the Democratic Party, with the Israel-Gaza War a key issue in the race. The result is outside issue groups have poured money into the district, which covers New York City’s northern suburbs.
The pro-Israel group United Democracy Project has spent more than $14.5 million, or about 60% of the total, with ads attacking Bowman. The crypto-focused Fairshake PAC has spent another $2.2 million on ads attacking the incumbent. As for the candidates themselves, Latimer’s campaign has spent $2.54 million vs. $2.03 million for Bowman’s, according to AdImpact. The New York primary is June 25.
The dust is still settling in Virginia, where the Republican primary last Tuesday has yet to declare a winner in the race involving incumbent Bob Good (R-VA). But AdImpact says the media was a big winner as the primary race had $15.3 million in total spending. It says 61% of the money went to support challenger John McGuire, who holds a narrow lead.
Also last week, a Republican primary in Oklahoma delivered $11.3 million in ad spending for what was one of the most expensive House races this cycle. Incumbent Tom Cole (R-OK) fought off challenger Paul Bondar.
Thanks to the New York congressional race, AdImpact says the New York market has had the biggest amount of political ad spending during the past two weeks. It calculates $12.6 million has been spent ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Philadelphia ranked second, with $7.8 million in political ads, followed by Atlanta, with $6.2 million.
Overall, during the last two weeks, AdImpact tracked $158.7 million in political ads.
AdImpact reports $2.94 billion has been spent on political ads so far during the 2024 election cycle. That is ahead of the $2.48 billion that was spent at this point in the 2020 election cycle. With the first Presidential debate set for Thursday (June 27), the two candidates have been ramping up their spending.
Fueled by a surge in fundraising that has closed the gap with his rival, former President Trump is returning to television with ads planned across eight states and Washington, D.C. totaling $109,000. His MAGA Inc. PAC has spent another $100,000, per AdImpact.
But President Biden still has a sizable head start on advertising. Since Super Tuesday, Biden has spent $99 million vs. $29.3 million spent by Trump — and Biden has ad time reserved for the coming months that is worth three times what Trump has reserved. Experts think that gap will close in the coming weeks and months.
During the last two weeks, Biden for President was the biggest political advertiser in the U.S., according to AdImpact. It says the campaign spent $15.8 million. Biden also had the most ads on Facebook and Google where Biden Victory Fund, with $1.7 million in ads, spent the most, followed by Biden for President, with $1.6 million.
Broadcasters may also notice a political ad bump on Thursday, since even though they will not be on the debate stage, AdImpact says it has seen several non-presidential candidates and issue groups pacing buys for the day. That includes in seven House races as well as nine Senate candidates, including incumbent Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).
AdImpact projects a record $10.2 billion will be spent during the 2023-2024 election cycle across all media, including radio. The forecast, if accurate, would mean political ad spending will grow 13% from the record $9.02 billion that flowed during the last presidential election cycle four years ago.
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