Noted analyst Brian Wieser of consultancy Madison and Wall has again updated his 2024 U.S. advertising outlook — the fifth revision in the last five quarterly updates.
He now sees U.S. ad spending growing at a rate of 7.2% this year, reaching $381 billion. That total excludes political ad spending. The latest forecast represents an increase from an earlier projection of 6.3% growth. With political factored in, Wieser sees growth of 10.5% to $397 billion.
The catalyst for the revision was a robust second quarter, which showed 9.6% growth, excluding political. Wieser had earlier estimated 6.7% growth in Q2. The 9.6% figure marks three straight quarters of growth near 10%.
Wieser sees the pace of growth easing in the second half of 2024, however, due to what he sees as unsustainable levels of digital growth and ongoing declines in TV viewership, among other factors.
Another key finding in Wieser’s update is that so-called “open web” platforms like Yahoo are in store for a hit due to the discontinuation of GARM, which advised big advertisers about brand safety but discontinued its operations after an antitrust lawsuit from X.
“There will be limits to marketer interest given challenges identifying consumers, concerns around spammy/made-for-advertising content and concerns around brand safety,” Wieser wrote. “In lieu of a global standard-setter such as the WFA’s GARM … spending on these sorts of media owners will probably be further deprioritized because of the additional costs involved in ensuring satisfactory standards for inventory quality and brand safety.”
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