Kagan Sees Local Ads And Political Spending Lifting Radio Slightly In 2026.

Radio revenue is likely to remain largely flat this year, with modest growth in local advertising offset by continued pressure on national and network spending, according to new forecasts from media analyst Justin Nielson of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Kagan unit.

Nielson tells Inside Radio he expects the industry’s core local broadcast revenue to grow 1% to 3% this year. But the gains will be uneven depending on the source of advertising. Nielson said national and network radio revenue are likely to slip modestly. He expects both to decline low single-digits in 2026.

“Local still should be relatively strong in certain markets,” Nielson said. “It's really going to be dependent upon which markets an operator’s footprint is. It's going to be a little lumpy in certain other cases.

He credits political advertising, which could provide an additional lift in 2026 as the midterm election cycle ramps up. Nielson noted radio typically benefits from midterm election cycles because spending is often focused on local races.

“It's a little bit better than in a presidential year, along with the fact that it's more call to action get people to the voting booth. So radio typically does better in midterms,” he said in an interview.

Still, broader economic conditions are expected to keep growth muted. “Given the kind of uncertainty in broader macroeconomic trends, the advertising market is a little tepid,” Nielson said. He pointed out that radio executives seem to agree, with many giving investors fairly conservative guidance on what to expect this year.

Another factor weighing on traditional revenue streams is the continued shift of advertising dollars toward digital platforms. Nielson said companies with stronger digital operations like iHeartMedia and Townsquare Media could be better positioned to capture those budgets. “I see more of that share going to digital,” he said. But from a long-term business model vantage point, Nielson said radio listeners remains relatively strong with the consolidation of streaming music services likely keeping any potential new entrant on the sidelines.

Over the next decade, Kagan has projected that digital’s share of total radio revenue will climb to 18.6% by 2035. At the same time, it predicts off-air revenue, which includes live events, will grow its revenue share to 20.1% by 2035.