AdImpact: 2026 Midterm Expected To Be Most Expensive On Record.

Political ad spending for the 2026 election cycle is projected to reach a staggering $10.8 billion, making it the most expensive midterm election in U.S. history. That’s according to AdImpact’s new “Political Projections Report 2025–2026.”

While this total reflects a slight 4% decrease from the record-setting 2024 cycle, it represents a significant 21% increase over the previous midterm in 2022. The increase is driven by an intensely competitive national political environment, with congressional races expected to generate unprecedented ad spending.

AdImpact notes that spending will hit record levels across all types of races. During the 2024 cycle, political ad spending reached $11.2 billion, a benchmark the 2026 cycle will nearly match despite being a midterm year.

The report highlights that broadcast television will continue to dominate political media buys, accounting for 49% of all ad dollars. However, connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing platform and is expected to be the only media type to see increased investment compared to 2024. In contrast, radio is projected to see a decline, capturing just 3% of the total spend, with estimated political ad revenue dropping to $280 million — down from $330 million in 2024 and $310 million in 2022.

At the state level, California is expected to lead the nation in political ad spending, with projections topping $1.1 billion. Other states likely to see major investments include Georgia, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, and Texas, each anticipated to attract $500 million or more. These states feature either multiple high-stakes statewide races or hotly contested House districts, making them key battlegrounds in the 2026 cycle.

The report also points to significant shifts in congressional spending patterns. As of Aug. 26, 2025, ad activity targeting Senate and House races has already accounted for 18% of all tracked political ad spending. That’s a sharp increase from 5% during the same point in 2023 and slightly above the 17% seen in 2021. Senate races alone are expected to generate $2 billion in ad spending, slightly surpassing 2024 levels and marking a 21% increase from 2022.

In the House, spending is projected to reach a record $2.2 billion, making it the first cycle where House race spending exceeds $2 billion. That figure represents a 27% jump from 2024 and a 40% surge over 2022. AdImpact attributes this rise to Republicans’ efforts to maintain their majority, driving aggressive fundraising and advertising efforts.

Downballot races, which include all non-federal and non-gubernatorial contests, are also expected to command a major share of the political advertising landscape. These races are projected to account for $3.9 billion in spending, or roughly 36% of the total.

Meanwhile, gubernatorial spending is forecast to reach $1.9 billion in 2026, showing modest growth of about 4% over the last comparable cycle in 2022. Five key states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin—are classified as toss-ups and are expected to account for nearly one-third of all gubernatorial spending. These same states saw over $500 million combined in gubernatorial ad spending during the 2022 cycle.