President Trump was sworn in Monday, and marketing executives are monitoring the change of administration more closely than in the past because they believe it may directly impact advertising.
“One has to assume that a lot of what was promised on the campaign trail will come into effect in one form or another. And so if we assume that, in fact, tariffs will be raised in general, that will have a pretty meaningful and negative consequence for advertising,” says Brian Wieser, Principal at Madison and Wall. The veteran analyst says it is not unlike when the pandemic upended supply chains and the ripple effects it had on ad spending. “Companies that were making things were not exactly wanting to advertise those things for fear of not being able to supply the goods,” he says, predicting that could play out again with so much of what is sold today coming from overseas.
Trump has also said he plans to start mass deportations of undocumented residents. Beyond the politics of such a move, Wieser says the economics mean that will not only mean fewer potential buyers of some products advertised, but also fewer workers to produce some things. “You could imagine if there were millions of individuals who were removed from labor markets, it would have disruptive effects on the services industry, as well as the impact that you can see from tariffs on manufacturing,” he said.
Analysts at eMarketer agree. They say retailers’ rush to import goods ahead of potential tariffs signals that many are getting ready for the new administration and looking to avoid potential upheaval from new tariffs or advertising restrictions.
“President Donald Trump’s second term promises profound shifts across commerce, technology, and regulation that will reshape how businesses operate and consumers behave,” the report says. “While some industries like crypto anticipate a more permissive environment, others face potential upheaval from new tariffs or advertising restrictions.”
eMarketer says the floating of a potential 2% to 5% increase in tariffs each month suggests the incoming Trump team acknowledges that a sudden 10% to 20% tariff could be too big of a shock to the U.S. economy.
The new administration is also expected to take a tougher stance on areas like pharmaceutical advertising, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who could potentially lead the Food and Drug Administration, saying in the past he believes drug ads should be banned. As a result, Weiser has doubts about the future of drug ads on broadcast outlets like TV and radio. “While we don’t know exactly what will happen, it’s not unreasonable to assume that there will be some negative impact for pharmaceutical advertising, especially on television, but possibly more broadly,” he says. Speaking on the latest IAB Pulse episode, he says there may also be some net positives, like growth in gambling and crypto advertising.
Following a strong performance in 2024, the advertising industry is expected to face slower growth in 2025, according to Madison and Wall. Excluding political ads, ad revenue is forecast to grow 4.5%, down from a 9% growth rate last year. It says the audio sector, including traditional and digital formats, is projected to decline 1.2% although digital audio, such as streaming and podcasting, will continue to grow, accounting for 39% of total audio revenue.
“The best case is that what was a solid economy overall becomes a worse one,” Wieser says. “Although it’s not good for the economy, higher inflation, which is likely, would also be positive for advertising. Of course, it’s equally plausible that stagflation takes root, and that’s negative for everyone.”
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