Ad Buyers Welcome Nielsen’s New Three Minute Rule.

The first ratings from Nielsen’s shift from a five- to a three-minute qualifier needed for quarter-hour credit have begun to roll out. It is the biggest methodology change in years by Nielsen for the currency on which advertising is sold, the revision could impact station sales. While buyers are still assessing what it all means, many say it’s an exciting development that will put radio in a more positive light with advertisers.

“It's a step in the right direction. It helps to show that there are innovations, and advancements happening in the space,” said Naomi Smolevitz, a director at the giant media agency OMD. During a Radio Advertising Bureau webinar last week, she said agency buyers often hear criticism from clients that video currencies are doing a better job of adapting to current media habits.

Diana Anderson, Senior VP/Group Director at Carat USA, agreed, calling it a “great step in modernizing” how radio is measured and helps align radio with how digital is measured.

“It was eye-opening to think about how much listening was being discounted because of the five-minute versus a three-minute qualifier,” Anderson said. “It's proving the radio audience is bigger than people are thinking, and that people are listening longer. We were discounting some of that.” She said that while the audience didn’t theoretically get bigger, the new measurement does a better job of capturing the listeners it does have.

“That increase in impressions will help in some of the modeling exercises that we do for radio,” added Mark Mandell, Director at IPG Mediabrands. He believes the revision will be closer to the “real listening” to radio compared to what they’ve had to work with in the past. “This just makes it more efficient,” Mandell said.

Harmelin Media Director of Research Bernie Shimkus said as a research “purist” he was initially skeptical of Nielsen’s decision to change PPM methodology. But after comparing radio to how other media channels are measured, including some where no independent third-party data is available, he decided he was being a “little too hard” on radio. Shimkus thinks having more radio impressions to put into their media mix models will benefit broadcasters. “It’s certainly going to be a good thing for radio in the long-run,” Shimkus said.

The Impact On Rates

RAB President Mike Hulvey said it’s not that listeners have been undercounted, but rather the new measurement will bring radio into closer alignment with what is happening. The changes will lead to buyers and advertisers adapting to new data, but most say it’s unlikely to lead to higher rates.

“I don't see clients agreeing to paying higher rates or raising their cost per points, especially since we are working so hard and have a tough sell to get radio on the plan to begin with,” Anderson said. “At the very least, we expect them to stay flat.”

“The marketplace is going to dictate it,” added Shimkus. “It’s supply and demand—it’s that negotiation that has always gone on.”

Buyers say that the new methodology is also unlikely to impact sales in the short-term because it’s a difficult message to convey to clients, but the audience reach could pay off longer term by putting it back on their front page.

While OMD has given clients a heads-up about the changes, Smolevitz said since a lot of national plans have already been made for this year, she expects it will have more impact on 2026 spending.

“It's more about just kind of having that initial conversation about what we think it's going to do,” she said.

Halo Effect On Diary Markets

Nielsen’s revisions may be focused on PPM markets, but buyers say better data will have a “halo effect” for all stations. Mandell said his team is waiting to get more data before they begin broaching the topic with clients. Yet he thinks the changes will help agencies more easily show clients how radio works.

“Historically, we've seen is that what's happening in the PPM markets is traditionally a good way to model for the rest of the country,” Mandell said. “But until we see those numbers, it's tough to say what the impact is going to be on those diary markets. I can hypothesize that they will become more efficient due to the listening going up.”

Based on the preliminary data, Anderson said she has seen consistent double-digit increases across all the markets, all the demos, all formats—with younger formats faring a little bit better. “It's safe to hypothesize that we could expect that there would be a similar increase in the diary markets,” she said.

Smolevitz, who is mainly focused on national audio buys, said a bigger question is what will the national ratings look like with the change. She thinks it could also lead radio networks to make adjustments to station lineups and properties based on how the numbers shake out. “A lot of that is still sort of yet to be determined,” Smolevitz said.

Anderson said it’s clear that national ratings will go up because PPM markets account for half of the ratings. She expects a bigger impact will be in “more balance” in the delivery with more dollars flowing to diary-based markets.

Watch a replay of the panel HERE.