Analyst: Ad Market Defies Tariff Fears With 10% First Quarter Growth.

Station managers and broadcast executives, like the rest of American business leaders, have been kept on the toes this year with the twists and turns in the economy. It is not any easier for the people issuing forecasts. Analyst Brian Wieser of the strategic advisory and consulting firm Madison and Wall estimates that U.S. advertising grew approximately 10% during the first quarter excluding political spending when compared to a year ago. That was more than double his revised projection of 4% growth.

Wieser updated his first quarter outlook in March based on what he believed would be the impacts of the tariffs. That included the expectation that businesses would reduce or delay marketing spending until that had a clearer understanding of the tariff’s impact on the supply chains, pricing, and sales. At the time, Wieser said it appeared to be a headwind that would result in reduced advertising spending.

Instead, the growth in Q1 ad spending — which was down from the 13% growth rate recorded during the fourth quarter — nonetheless offers a fresh analysis about what drove the increases, and what they mean for the months to come.

In an update to clients, Wieser says the U.S. economy was in relatively good shape during the first quarter, as the GDP grew by 4.7% year-over-year. There was also a rush by companies to import more goods to beat the tariffs, while consumers also pull forward their purchases to avoid higher prices.

Wieser says clues to what may be on the horizon comes from consumer packaged goods companies. He points to Procter & Gamble, which has held its marketing spending flat, while Unilever signaled increases to their marketing investment were forthcoming. Colgate-Palmolive also said it would keep its spending on par with last year, while brands like Coca-Cola and L’Oréal gave said they will need to be agile with their marketing to respond to changing consumer sentiment.

Wieser earlier said he expects non-political ad spending to climb 3.6% this year. And he sees ad spending growth holding at that level for the next several years, with possible larger gains coming in 2028 due to the Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

Madison and Wall’s latest outlook also sees digital advertising’s onward march continuing unabated. It’s expected to gain a larger share of spending and industry revenue, from 67% last year to possibly 79% in 2030, or $390 billion.