Ad Agency Assembly: Prep For Political Disruptions In Coming Year.

The 2026 election season is shaping up to be the most expensive non-presidential cycle in U.S. history, with political ad spending projected to surpass $10 billion across Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislative races. That’s up from $8.75 billion in 2022, according to Assembly’s 2026 Election Outlook Report. The group warns marketers to brace for higher rates, inventory shortages, and widespread preemptions. The ad agency says CPMs rose by as much as 80% in the past, especially on broadcast TV. Local radio, while less impacted, remains a primary channel for down-ballot races and issue advertisers targeting niche geographies.

“Political advertising puts a unique and significant strain on advertisers in local markets,” the report says. “Any advertiser that expects to be active in a high-intensity market should be preparing now for higher rates, less inventory, and more preemptions.”

It says local broadcast television still gets a plurality of all political spending, so brands that plan on having a significant broadcast component need to be prepared for the most disruption. But that could also open an opportunity for radio stations to pick up those campaigns.

Assembly’s political team says spending will not be evenly distributed. Its proprietary Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII) — a 1-to-10 scale tracking how crowded local markets will get — points to Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina as the most competitive and disruptive battlegrounds.

Georgia: The Epicenter Of Political Noise

Georgia’s combination of a Senate race and a Governor’s race will make it one of the nation’s most saturated ad markets. Assembly pegs Atlanta’s AMII at an extremely high 8.88, while other markets in the state average 8.21, warning of significant disruptions due to political spending throughout late-2025 and all of 2026. Assembly says as with most political advertising in Georgia, spending will likely start in Atlanta, before spreading to secondary and tertiary markets like Savannah, Augusta, and Columbus.

Michigan: High-Spend Senate And Governor Races

Michigan’s open Senate and Governor’s seats are expected to make it another hotspot. Detroit tops the state’s AMII chart at 9.25, followed by Grand Rapids (8.75) and Lansing (8.25). Assembly says spending targeting these races will make Michigan amongst the “most intense” states in 2026, which has led to an average AMII score of 8.48 for the state overall.

North Carolina Goes Early

In contrast to Michigan’s late start, Assembly thinks things will move early in North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper (D) and ex-RNC Chair Michael Whatley (R) are front-runners for the Senate opening. Since both candidates will easily secure their nominations, the general election will likely start earlier in North Carolina relative to other states with competitive Senate races. The Senate race is why Assembly projects an AMII of 7.69 for North Carolina overall, with Raleigh (9.25) and Greenville-New Bern (7.38) coming in on both sides of that.

House Races Could Bring Surprise Spending

While Senate races will dominate national headlines, the House of Representatives could see the most consequential advertising surge. With roughly 40 competitive districts and a narrow Republican majority, Assembly calls the chamber “essentially up for grabs.”

That means local markets like Des Moines, Omaha, Denver, Portland, ME, and Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA — along with big markets like Los Angeles (AMII: 9.51) and New York (8.13) — could see broadcast and radio inventory squeezed by last-minute ad buys.

“From an advertising perspective, this means that those competitive House seats are likely to be heavily inundated with political advertising,” the report predicts. It also says there’s the added element of uncertainty from potential redistricting in several states.