Publicis Media’s Zenith is scaling back its advertising market growth projections for next year. The ad agency’s latest update predicts global ad spending will climb 4.8% next year, which is down from the 6.9% prediction it made in June. “Zenith’s outlook continues to support the expectation of healthy advertising growth across all regions through 2026 with mature markets driving largest ad spend,” it says.
The overall growth forecast no longer includes U.S. political ad spending to offer what Zenith says is a “more stable and representative projection. Even so, Zenith still says the growth rate for the Americas next year will be the most robust growth of any region in the world. The agency expects North America will continue to provide the largest contributions to advertising growth through 2026, with ad spend growing $55.8 billion, which would represent 44% of the overall global ad spend growth during the period. Factors at play next year include the Summer Olympics, which typically motivates some advertisers to increase their ad budgets.
Zenith also says that ad spend momentum remains on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category in its forecast, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026.
Zenith estimates video ad spending – which it lumps together with everything from local TV to TikTok –will account for nearly 30% of the overall advertising market and will grow at an annual rate of 2.1% between 2023 and 2026. It says the increases are mostly driven by digital video platforms such as YouTube and TikTok.
Zenith is sticking with its estimates that global ad spending will increase 4.4% this year.