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Wieser Sees ‘Massive’ Political Dollars Ahead, Ups Ad Spending Projections Again.

It’s another quarter, another upwardly revised forecast from noted advertising industry analyst Brian Wieser.

He’s again updated his ad spending outlook — for the fourth time in four quarters. He now sees U.S. ad spending rising 6.3% in 2024, up from his September 2023 benchmark of a 4.3% increase.

And as robust as that sounds, it doesn’t even include political, which is expected to be well into record territory by the end of the current election cycle. “Excluding political advertising, I estimate that the U.S. ad market grew by 10.1% during the first quarter of 2024, aided in part by the easy comparable of first quarter 2023’s 1.2% growth rate,” Wieser wrote in his Madison and Wall newsletter. “This was similar to the fourth quarter of 2023’s 11.1% pace of expansion, which also benefitted from the easy comparable of the fourth quarter of 2022, when the ad market only grew by 0.2%.”

Wieser writes political ad spending for this year “will still be massive: at the present time I forecast that total political and issue advertising will amount to $15.1 billion for the full year, up from $12.6 billion in 2022 and $14.1 billion in 2020.

“Combined with spending on non-political activity, total advertising in the United States will amount to $394 billion this year.”

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