WARC Outlook: AI, Major Events Fuel 2026 U.S. Ad Growth.

U.S. advertisers are entering 2026 amid a continued expansion in global advertising spending, with artificial intelligence investment, major events and digital media growth helping drive the market despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Global ad spending is set to rise 11.9% to $1.34 trillion this year, according to WARC’s latest update to its third-quarter 2026 media global ad spend outlook. The increase follows growth of about 10% in both 2024 and 2025.

The U.S. remains one of the world’s most advertising-intensive markets. WARC forecasts U.S. advertising spending of $1,395 per capita in 2026, substantially higher than the $935 forecast for the UK, $850 for Austria and $825 for Switzerland.

The level of U.S. advertising investment reflects the size and maturity of the American media market, where advertisers have access to a broad mix of television, streaming, social media, search, retail media, audio, digital out-of-home and other platforms.

“These are unusual times for advertising,” Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data, says in a news release. “Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth — particularly from the AI boom — is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others.”

AI is emerging as a major force behind advertising growth in the U.S. and globally. Technology companies are increasing advertising investments as they compete for customers and seek to establish their brands, while established businesses are spending more to defend and expand their positions in an increasingly competitive market.

Social media is expected to be the fastest-growing major advertising channel globally in 2026, with spending projected to increase 21.3% to $394.6 billion. WARC expects social media advertising to surpass $500 billion in 2028.

Search and retail media also are expected to remain major components of the advertising market. Global search advertising is forecast to rise 14.2% this year to $295.7 billion, while retail media is projected to increase 14.3% to $202.1 billion.

Together, social media, search and retail media are expected to account for 66.4% of global advertising spending in 2026. Their combined share is projected to reach 70% by 2028.

Other digital channels are also expected to post double-digit growth globally this year. Video-on-demand advertising is forecast to increase 15.1% to $48.4 billion, while digital out-of-home advertising is expected to grow 13.7% to $21.7 billion.

Major events are providing another boost to advertising investment. The 2026 Olympics, FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm elections are expected to generate significant advertising opportunities, particularly in the U.S.

The technology and electronics category is forecast to be the fastest-growing product category globally in 2026, with ad spending increasing 20.7% from 2025. The travel and transport category is expected to grow 19.3%, while automotive advertising is projected to rise 17.8%.

Social media is expected to capture 40.2% of global ad spending by technology and electronics companies this year.

The dominance of major technology platforms also is continuing. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are expected to capture a combined 59.7% of global advertising spending outside China in 2026, equivalent to $659.6 billion. Their combined share is forecast to reach 61.5%, or $804.1 billion, by 2028.

WARC expects global advertising growth to moderate after 2026. Spending is forecast to rise 8.4% to $1.46 trillion in 2027 and another 7.9% to $1.57 trillion in 2028. The 2028 total would make the global advertising market 2.3 times larger than it was in 2019.