WARC: Global Ad Market Rebounds Sharply On Digital Surge.

The global advertising market is set for its strongest growth in years, with fresh forecasts projecting a 7.4% rise in global ad spending this year — reaching an unprecedented $1.17 trillion.

That’s according to new data released by WARC, a leading authority on marketing effectiveness. The updated figures represent a significant upgrade — 1.2 percentage points higher than WARC’s previous forecast in June — thanks largely to a surprise windfall in the second quarter driven by soaring social media ad revenues.

Looking ahead, WARC projects even faster growth in 2026, with global ad spending expected to climb 8.1% to $1.27 trillion — or around $150 for every person on the planet. By 2027, the market is forecast to reach $1.36 trillion, double the size it was at the height of the pandemic in 2020.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting at WARC, says the trend is clear: “Digital-first platforms are capturing almost all the new money. Despite economic headwinds and global trade concerns, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon.”

Those three tech giants now account for more than half (55.8%) of all advertising spending outside of China. That’s a staggering $524 billion this year alone. Their combined share is expected to rise further, reaching 60% by the end of the decade.

Spending on social platforms is set to rise nearly 15% this year to $306 billion, accounting for more than one in four ad dollars globally. WARC credits a sharp rise in spending from retailers and tech brands in Q2, ahead of new U.S. trade tariffs introduced on so-called “Freedom Day.”

Retailers ramped up ad spending on Instagram by nearly 19%, and on TikTok by an eye-catching 57%, between April and June. Tech and electronics brands also increased their presence, adding a combined $1 billion to Facebook spend alone in Q2.

That unexpected burst helped social media advertising revenues beat forecasts by almost $5 billion in Q2, a key factor in WARC’s upgraded outlook.

Instagram and TikTok are now growing faster than Facebook. Instagram’s ad growth is averaging 16.4%, while TikTok is accelerating even more rapidly, with a projected 21.6% average growth through 2027.

Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, remains the dominant force in social media advertising. It’s expected to bring in $184 billion this year — nearly 16% of all ad spend globally.

Still, TikTok is gaining ground. By 2027, its share of social media ad spend is expected to hit nearly 12%, up from just over 10% today.

Meanwhile, search advertising remains strong, up 10% this year to more than $253 billion. Google commands the lion’s share — about 86% of that market — even as it faces antitrust scrutiny in the U.S.

Retail media is also expanding, with expected growth of 13.7% this year to $175 billion. Amazon leads that category, pulling in $62 billion — more than one-third of the total.

Newspapers, magazines, broadcast TV, and radio are all tracking declines in ad revenue between 2020 and 2027. Magazine advertising spend, for example, is down nearly 50%. Newspapers have fallen 46%.

Broadcast TV is off by more than a third, and radio is down 26% globally. Although podcasting and streaming audio have grown, they haven’t fully offset losses in legacy audio channels.

Overall, five major ad channels — including online classified ads — have seen real-term declines since the pandemic.

WARC’s analysis also highlights sector-level shifts since the pandemic.

Clothing, travel and nicotine brands have more than doubled ad spending since 2020. In contrast, financial services have barely grown, and media and publishing is the only consumer-facing category expected to see a real decline.

Amazon, Alphabet and Meta — often called the “triopoly” — have been the biggest winners. Amazon’s ad revenue in 2027 is expected to be three times higher than in 2020. Alphabet’s is up two-thirds. Meta’s has nearly doubled.

Together, the trio is on track to post real growth of 89% over seven years — nearly five times faster than all other media owners combined.