Updated Borrell Forecast Highlights Radio’s Sales-Savvy Survival.

The latest forecast from Borrell Associates brings a dose of measured optimism to the radio industry. The July 2025 forecast shows smaller year-over-year losses than previously projected, crediting smarter sales tactics and stronger digital integration by stations.

Although local radio revenue is still projected to decline, the updated outlook reveals a more tempered drop than previously expected, signaling a sector that’s adjusting to an unraveling of traditional media buying habits. Compared to Borrell’s last forecast nine months ago, this one reflects a smaller dip. Local radio revenue is now projected to fall 3.4% in 2025, an improvement over the 4.9% drop previously predicted. That trend continues with smaller declines forecast going forward, with industry revenue expected to drop about 12% between 2024 and 2029.

Corey Elliott, Executive VP of Local Market Intelligence at Borrell, says the revisions are based on dozens of data points across various business categories and how they are responding to things like new tariffs. That is combined with their just-completed spring survey of local advertisers.

“When we asked, ‘Do you expect to increase or cut radio in the future?’ the responses were positive. It wasn’t everybody saying they’re going to decrease or cut,” Elliott said. “There wasn’t a whole lot of increases either — but that kind of stability, right now, is something.”

Much of that stability stems from how radio is being sold. While traditional AM/FM still reaches roughly nine in ten Americans each week, thanks to streaming audio and on-demand options, many stations are making up broadcast gaps by shifting to smarter sales strategies.

“What we’re getting from local advertisers is that the perception out there is that radio reps are relatively savvy when it comes to marketing and digital,” Elliott said. “They saw digital rip across other media and cause chaos — and they had a little more time to get their ducks in a row.”

That foresight is translating into new approaches. “If you’re going to go out and sell just radio, you’re going to crash harder,” he said. “But when somebody folds it into a larger campaign — or gets it to feed off of each other, like running a spot that drives people to a website — then it becomes an entire marketing plan. That’s going to help.”

Some Markets Are Growing

Markets embracing such tactics are showing up as outliers in Borrell’s data. Charleston, SC, for instance, is projected to see a 1.2% increase in local radio spending through 2029. Other markets like Cheyenne, WY and Huntsville, TX are also forecast to grow. While local dynamics vary, one thing is clear, says Elliott: markets where stations lead with digital and treat radio as part of a broader mix are holding up better.

“Radio station reps seem to have a better grasp on outreach than others,” he said. “They aren’t as afraid of other products or marketing avenues as maybe some other reps are.”

That versatility is crucial in an environment where national money is shifting fast. “Major brands are pulling back on broadcast and shifting more dollars to streaming audio, podcasts, and platforms where they can get more precise targeting,” Elliott said. The result is Borrell forecasts national spot and network revenue may decline 15% to 30% in some markets as big brands shift dollars to digital options.

At the same time, local online audio — streaming and podcast advertising — is accelerating. The forecast calls for spending to rise from just over $1.2 billion in 2024 to $2 billion by 2029. “That line for digital audio just keeps tilting up,” Elliott said. “It’s still relatively small, but the opportunity is coming.”

Markets like Charleston are once again ahead of the curve, with 83% growth projected in local online audio ad spending by 2029. Oxnard-Ventura, CA is up over 50%. And Boise, ID clocks in at 17% growth.

“The one thing radio stations could leverage is being part of the local community,” Elliott said. “Now, how do you turn that into a podcast or something in digital audio? That’ll be the trick.”

More Potential Than Dollars

Even with digital audio’s growth, Elliott cautioned broadcasters not to overestimate its current footprint. “Right now, it’s high-potential, low-penetration,” he said. “Most local media companies don’t have endless podcast episodes to sell. Once you’ve filled the pre-roll, mid-roll, and maybe gotten a sponsor or two — you’re full.”

Still, Borrell sees long-term promise. Advances like AI-generated local reads and dynamic ad insertion could unlock new inventory and measurement options. Elliott pointed to one surprising finding from recent research into how small businesses are using AI. “The one thing they’re using it most often for is brainstorming creative ideas — just using it like a creative team. That screamed to me an opportunity for local media,” he said.

Overall, the message for radio is mixed — but far from dire according to Elliott. “Yes, it’s tough. But radio’s tenacious and scrappy. And the smart ones saw what was coming and adapted,” he said.

Borrell Associates will hold a webinar today at 11am ET detailing its updated forecast. Register HERE.