U.S. Holiday Sales Expected To Top $1 Trillion For First Time.

U.S. retail sales during the November-December holiday season are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, according to a 2026 holiday forecast from Bain & Company. The consultancy projects holiday sales will increase 4.5% from a year earlier, exceeding the 3.5% growth recorded during the 2025 season.

The forecast also cautions that the gains may not translate into equivalent increases in consumer purchasing power. More than half of the expected nominal sales growth will be attributable to inflation, Bain said.

Online and other non-store sales are expected to provide the strongest growth. Bain projects non-store sales will rise 9% year over year and account for about 60% of total holiday sales growth vs. 50% last year. In-store sales, which represent about 70% of holiday retail activity, are expected to increase 2.5%.

Clothing and accessories, along with health and personal care products, are expected to be among the strongest-performing categories. In Bain’s survey of more than 1,100 consumers, 43% said clothing would be their largest holiday spending category, ahead of groceries at 37% and gift cards at 36%.

Consumers are also increasingly turning to artificial intelligence when shopping. Twenty-four percent of online shoppers said they expect to begin their holiday shopping journey on AI platforms such as Claude, Google Gemini and ChatGPT, up from 17% in 2025.

Bain said retailers continue to face pressure from inflation, high gasoline prices, tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, lower savings rates and rising credit-card delinquencies. At the same time, higher tax refunds and rising stock prices could provide support for consumer spending.

“While U.S. retailers have reason to rejoice this holiday season as the industry reaches the trillion-dollar milestone for the first time, there are underlying factors that will temper bottom lines,” says Aaron Cheris, partner at Bain & Company and global head of the firm’s Retail practice. “The key for retailers is to make the most of the crucial holiday season by striking the right balance when it comes to price and promotions and making the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors.”