Streaming, Retail Media, AI Reshape U.S.-Led Global Ad Outlook for 2025–26.

The global advertising economy is proving far more resilient than many analysts expected a year ago, according to WPP Media’s latest This Year Next Year global end-of-year forecast.

The firm cites stronger-than-anticipated trade-tariff outcomes and surging AI investment as key factors lifting both worldwide and U.S. market expectations, with an especially robust outlook heading into 2026.

WPP Media now projects global advertising revenue — excluding U.S. political spending — will rise 8.8% in 2025 to $1.14 trillion, with momentum continuing into 2026 at an expected 7.1% growth rate. Over the next five years, the company forecasts a 6.3% compound annual growth rate, signaling what it describes as sustained expansion despite mixed macroeconomic conditions.

The U.S. market, the world’s largest, is central to that growth trajectory. Analysts note that large American digital platforms, retailers, streaming services, and AI-driven technology companies continue to shape the direction of global advertising budgets. WPP Media emphasizes that shifts taking place in the U.S. — particularly the rise of streaming, retail media, and AI-powered search alternatives — are increasingly determining global norms.

The forecast describes the industry as entering a period of rapid reinvention, citing Joseph Schumpeter’s concept of “creative destruction.” According to WPP Media, streaming video is steadily overtaking linear TV, retail media is drawing spend away from more traditional digital channels, and AI-powered answer engines are beginning to alter search behavior. At the same time, creator-driven content continues to displace professionally produced media, forcing both U.S. and global advertisers to reassess long-standing strategies.

AI, already deeply embedded in U.S. ad-tech systems, is described as a “primary catalyst” behind this disruption, influencing content creation, media planning, measurement, and consumer experience. WPP Media says the industry’s earlier adoption of machine-learning tools places it in a strong position to adapt to the next phase of AI-driven transformation.

Reflecting the breadth of these shifts, WPP Media has reclassified what was previously labeled “search” under a new category called “Intelligence,” and has added new forecast segments including gaming, financial-services media networks, and travel media networks. The expansions are intended to capture the growing diversity of global — and especially U.S.-based — companies now selling advertising.

Among category-level projections, commerce advertising is expected to reach $178.2 billion globally in 2025, surpassing total TV ad revenue for the first time. WPP Media notes that within commerce, “pressure to consolidate and strengthen proof of value” is likely as AI-based interfaces threaten to siphon dollars from retail-media networks—a trend with major implications for large U.S. retailers that now function as media platforms.

Content-driven advertising remains the largest global category at $663.5 billion, or 58% of all revenue. Gaming is the fastest-growing content channel, set to rise 29.5% to $8.5 billion in 2025, though it will still represent just 0.7% of worldwide spending. Newspaper advertising is expected to stabilize in the near term at $31.4 billion next year before resuming its decline.

Digital out-of-home is forecast to represent 43.9% of global OOH revenue by 2030, reaching $31.4 billion, nearly matching traditional formats—another shift expected to be led by major U.S. media markets.