Six States Account For $3.7 Billion, Or 38%, Of Estimated Midterm Election Ad Spend.

As part of AdImpact's just-out report projecting a record-hitting $9.67 billion election ad spend for the total 2022 midterm cycle, the ad data tracking firm breaks down its estimate to show which states and races are driving the increased spend. Six states – California, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – account for $3.7 billion of the projected ad outlay, representing 38% of the total.

For California, $259 million – more than a third of its estimated $755 million spend –is expected to go to House races, putting it far ahead of any other state, with New York a distant second at $157 million. For Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, House, Senate and Gubernatorial races are driving ad spend, while in Illinois it's primarily for Governor's race and House seats.

For four of these states – Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada – Senate race spend is expected to have a $200 million price tag, based on AdImpact's forecast. All four states have already spent north of $100 million, with Georgia's race currently at $190 million, making it the sixth most expensive election on record, gunning for the state's 2020 runoff elections for the top spot. Adding Wisconsin and Ohio, six states have already spent over $100 million, compared to just one, Florida, to pass that threshold in 2018.

Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Illinois are each projected to spend $150 million on Governor's races, with the latter two states at over $200 million and Illinois' race with an already-spent and record-setting $143 million on its Gubernatorial primary. California, New York, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan are expected to be the biggest spenders on House races, all above $100 million, AdImpact says.

Illinois and Nevada lead the states where AdImpact's projected spend has increased the most, driven by the former's Governor's race and latter's competitive Senate race. States where estimated spend has been adjusted downward include Texas and Florida, where redistricting in both states led to fewer competitive seats and lower overall primary spending.