Radio Set To Capture $945 Million In 2026 Political Advertising.

Political advertising is on pace for a record-setting 2026, with PQ Media raising its estimate for total political media buying to $15.3 billion, a 46.3% increase over the 2022 midterm election and 1.8% higher than spending during the 2024 presidential cycle. More than 60% of that spending, or $9.38 billion, is expected to hit media markets after Labor Day.

The projections come from a two-part guest blog post on the Radio Advertising Bureau’s Radio Matters blog by Dr. Leo Kivijarv, EVP/Research at PQ Media.

The revised forecast follows PQ Media’s analysis of the competitive forces driving this year’s elections. Record fundraising, competitive primaries, open-seat contests, shifting voter sentiment and changes to campaign finance rules are all contributing to what the research firm describes as an unusually contentious political environment. PQ Media previously estimated that fundraising across federal, state and local races would approach $13 billion in 2026, with more than 75% of campaign fundraising typically flowing into advertising and marketing.

Federal races will account for the largest share of political media buying. PQ Media projects $5.38 billion will be spent on Senate races, up 41.8% from 2022, while House races are expected to generate $4.16 billion, a 49.1% increase. Combined, Senate and House races will represent 62.3% of all political media buying this year.

Gubernatorial races are expected to generate another $3.2 billion, up 31.9% from 2022. The 36 governor’s races are particularly important for radio because gubernatorial candidates typically advertise across an entire state, creating opportunities across multiple markets.

Down-ballot races and ballot initiatives will add another $2.56 billion in spending, according to PQ Media. Down-ballot elections are projected at $1.38 billion, while ballot initiatives are expected to reach $1.18 billion, marking the first time that category has topped $1 billion.

For broadcasters, the media mix is particularly notable.

Radio is expected to generate $945 million in political media buying, a 43.6% increase over 2022. PQ Media attributes much of radio’s growth to podcasting and digital extensions of radio stations, while also pointing to radio’s ability to reach Hispanic and African American audiences.

Broadcast television remains the largest individual medium, projected to attract $5.74 billion. Streaming video is projected to post the fastest growth among the major video platforms, rising 96.4% from 2022 to $1.36 billion. Mobile political media will reach $1.01 billion, while direct mail remains a major marketing channel at $2.36 billion.

PQ Media also identifies the markets most likely to experience tight advertising inventory. Ohio ranks first among states, followed by Michigan and Georgia. California, Iowa, Arizona, Texas, Kansas, Wisconsin and New Hampshire round out the top 10. Among DMAs, Boston-Manchester ranks first, followed by Phoenix-Prescott, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Cedar Rapids-Waterloo-Iowa City-Dubuque and Tucson-Sierra Vista.

The outlook reinforces a central conclusion from PQ Media’s two-part analysis: political advertising follows competition. As more races tighten and campaigns raise and spend more money, broadcasters can expect political dollars to arrive earlier and remain in the market longer, creating opportunities well beyond the final weeks before Election Day.