Radio Reclaims Political Ad Share As October Buying Approaches.

Kinetiq Political Insights has trimmed its outlook for radio’s share of this year’s political advertising windfall, but broadcasters are already running well ahead of the past two election cycles as the industry heads into what could be its biggest political sales weeks of the year.

The firm’s September forecast now calls for $230 million in radio political advertising tied to 2026 races, down from roughly $300 million in its April forecast. Broadcast television is projected to take $4.88 billion, with cable at $1.1 billion and streaming and digital at $4.14 billion.

The reduction in radio comes even as KPI’s overall outlook remains remarkably steady. It now projects $10.35 billion in advertising for this year’s races, essentially unchanged from the $10.4 billion it forecast in April. Its headline $11.96 billion estimate includes the entire 2025-2026 political cycle, including $1.61 billion outside this year’s races. “We called $12 billion in April and hold it,” KPI says of its full-cycle forecast.

KPI paints a more upbeat picture of radio’s performance so far that the forecast numbers may suggest. Its data shows radio booked $73.5 million in political advertising from Jan. 1 through Sept. 11, accounting for 2.9% of the $2.5 billion of political ad spending. That is nearly twice the $38.9 million radio booked at the same stage of the 2024 presidential cycle and more than double the $33 million recorded during the comparable 2022 midterm period.

Radio’s share of political money on the order book has also rebounded from 2.3% in 2024 and is approaching the 3.2% it captured at this point in the 2022 midterm. “Radio grew with the book, not against it, so its share held,” KPI says.

Spanish-language radio is also capturing a piece of the political spending surge. KPI says $8.7 million had aired on Spanish-language radio through Sept. 11, with Democrats accounting for $7.9 million and Republicans $800,000.

That performance comes with the biggest spending period still ahead. KPI says $2.05 billion of projected spending remains to be bought. Three-quarters of it — $1.50 billion — is expected to come in October, when just $1.04 billion of a projected $2.54 billion had been reserved.

“October is two-fifths reserved,” the report says. “The rest is the open room of the year, and it prices at October rates.”

For radio sellers, the mix of buyers could be just as important as the amount still available. Outside groups have reserved about three of every four fall dollars on both sides of the political aisle, and they typically pay substantially more for airtime than candidates, who receive lowest-unit-rate protections.

KPI examination of FM political orders shows the premium varies by daypart. The median issue-group spot costs 2.8-times the candidate price in morning drive, 2.7-times in middays, 2.6-times in afternoon drive, and 3.3-times during evenings. In morning drive, for example, the median issue-group spot was $80 compared with $29 for a candidate paying lowest unit rate.

The late buying surge comes as political advertisers face sharply higher prices for broadcast television. Kinetiq says five of every six rated TV markets are pricing October above spring levels. The median market’s October cost per rating point is now 1.79-times its February-May price, compared with 1.19-times during the comparable period of the 2022 midterm cycle.

“A fall plan priced on spring rates needs nearly twice the budget,” the report says.

KPI doesn’t predict that higher television prices will send spending to radio. But with so much money still uncommitted and TV inventory becoming more expensive, radio sales teams have a window to compete for budgets as political buyers complete their fall media plans.

The opportunity is also heavily concentrated geographically. KPI says 13 states account for $7.5 billion of the $10.35 billion it expects to be spent on this year’s races across all media, nearly three dollars of every four.

A handful of Senate contests are soaking up an outsized portion of the fall money. The report says eight Senate races account for $635 million, or 94%, of the $679 million reserved across 24 Senate contests. Those eight races have more ad dollars reserved than all 435 House districts combined.