NRF: Retail Sales Rise For Sixth Month As Tax Refunds Boost Spending.

Retail sales rose for a sixth straight month in March, buoyed by higher-than-usual tax refunds that helped offset rising gasoline prices, according to data released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation.

The increase came despite ongoing pressure from inflation and weak consumer sentiment, with shoppers continuing to prioritize essential household spending.

“Retail sales grew for a sixth consecutive month in March as the first wave of tax refunds offset higher gas prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a news release. “Despite record low consumer sentiment and the highest inflation rate in two years, consumers continued to spend on household priorities. As consumers focus on costs, retailers remain laser-focused on keeping prices competitive and affordable.”

According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, total retail sales excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February and rose 6.59% year over year (YoY). That compares with a 0.28% monthly gain and a 6.24% annual increase in February.

Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, rose 0.41% month over month in March and were up 7.05% vs. a year earlier. In February, those figures were 0.27% and 5.87%, respectively.

For the first quarter overall, total retail sales were up 6.18% from the same period a year ago, while core sales increased 6.14%.

The gains come as consumers received larger tax refunds this year. The Internal Revenue Service reported that average refunds reached $3,521 as of late March, an 11.1% increase from 2025 following tax law changes enacted last year.

The Retail Monitor differs from survey-based estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau by using anonymized credit and debit card transaction data compiled by Affinity Solutions, eliminating the need for later revisions.

On a yearly basis, sales increased in eight of nine retail categories, led by health and personal care stores, clothing retailers and sporting goods outlets. Month over month, sales rose in seven of nine categories.

Specifics from key sectors include:

• Health and personal care stores: +0.51% month over month (MoM) seasonally adj.; +12.25% YoY unadj.

• Clothing and accessories stores: +0.57% MoM seasonally adj.; +10.89% YoY unadj.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores: +0.4% MoM seasonally adj.; +10.88% YoY unadj.

• Digital products (electronic books, games): +1.42% MoM seasonally adj.; +9.39% YoY unadj.

• General merchandise stores: +0.38% MoM seasonally adj.; +8.77% YoY unadj.

• Electronics and appliance stores: +0.06% MoM seasonally adj.; +7.67% YoY unadj.

• Grocery and beverage stores: +0.39% MoM seasonally adjusted; +3.78% YoY unadj.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores: -0.11% MoM seasonally adjusted; +3.54% YoY unadj.

• Building and garden supply stores: -0.08% MoM seasonally adjusted; -0.47% YoY unadj.