NRF: Holiday Spending ‘Clearly on Track’ to Meet NRF’s Forecast.

New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that retail sales remained strong as the holiday shopping season officially kicked off in November, according to National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“November’s results show a strong start to the traditional holiday season,” Kleinhenz said. “These numbers combined with better-than-expected October sales are evidence that consumer spending continues to fuel the economy. Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending. This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December. The season’s pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast.”

Overall retail sales in November rose 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month and climbed 3.8% unadjusted on a year-over-year basis, the Census Bureau said. October saw increases of 0.5% month over month and 2.9% year over year.

November’s core retail sales (as defined by NRF) were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.8% unadjusted year over year. NRF’s core retail sales figure is based on Census Bureau data but excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

NRF says November’s results align its outlook for holiday sales to grow 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023. NRF defines the season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, but 45% of holiday shoppers planned to start earlier, with 58% having started by early November.

The latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, released last week, said steady retail sales growth continued in November — even though two of the holiday season’s most robust shopping days were bumped into December and left out of November’s tally.

November sales saw gains in five of nine retail categories year-over-year. Online sales led the way, followed by grocery and beverage stores and clothing and accessories stores. Sales climbed in two categories on a month-over-month basis.