New Data Challenges Assumptions About Weekly Ad Loads.

Addressing one of radio executives’ most asked questions — “How many ads should I run per week?” — Westwood One’s blog, citing various research sources, concludes that, it depends.

“Advertising is not ‘one size fits all,’” Cumulus Media/Westwood One Audio Active Group Chief Insights Officer Pierre Bouvard says. “Understanding the campaign goal is crucial to determining the right AM/FM radio media plan.”

Partnering with the Radio Advertising Bureau, Cumulus determined there are four approaches to reaching a radio station’s audience, ad schedules that vary based on format and a campaign’s goals. Those four are: a minimum/very light schedule, reaching one-third of a station’s weekly audience an average of 1.4 times; a maintenance/light schedule reaching half the weekly audience an average of two times; a high impact/medium schedule reaching two-thirds of audience an average of three times; and the launch/heavy schedule which reaches 78% of the weekly audience an average of 4.3 times.

Using turnover — which is calculated by dividing a station’s cume by its average quarter-hour audience — stations can determine how many ads are needed to run for each of these four schedules. The higher the turnover, the more ads needed to reach the audience. Stations with high turnovers have lower time spent listening, while those with lower turnovers have higher TSL, where fewer weekly ads are needed to accomplish reach objectives.

“There is no such thing as a good or bad turnover — you just need to know what it is,” Bouvard says. How to use turnover for each of the four schedules? “To determine the number of ads needed for a minimum/very light schedule, take half the turnover. For a maintenance/light schedule, use the turnover. For a high impact/medium schedule, double the turnover. For a launch/heavy weekly campaign, multiply the turnover by 3.4.”

The number of ads needed to achieve each of the four levels of station reach varies depending on format. For minimum/very light, total ads per week ranges from 9 to 14, with a 19-29 range for maintenance/light, 41-61 for high impact/medium and 76-108 for launch/heavy.

A Media Monitors analysis of one week’s worth of ads (more than 180,000) airing on close to 1,700 U.S. stations in nearly 100 markets showed that only 2% of campaigns fell into the launch/heavy category, while 4% were high impact/medium, 19% maintenance/light and the vast majority, 73%, were minimum/very light ad campaigns.

“Just a fraction of American AM/FM radio schedules reach over half the station audience,” Bouvard notes. “Most weekly radio station campaigns are very light, reaching only one-third of a radio station’s audience, less than two times.”

What explains advertisers’ low estimates of total ads needed to run high impact or launch campaigns? According to an RAB survey of more than 300 agencies and sellers, respondents perceived an average 33 weekly ads were need to reach two-thirds of a station’s audience, compared to the actual 51, while the estimated for reaching 78% of listeners was 46 ads vs. the actual 102. In either case, Bouvard says, “Radio sellers vastly misjudged the number of weekly ads needed.”

Key takeaways for stations and advertisers? “Don’t expect grand opening results from a light weekly campaign,” Bouvard says. “Don’t underestimate the number of ads needed to achieve specific campaign goals. Create weekly investment levels for the four campaigns, [and] evaluate your annual marketing calendar to ensure sales events have sufficient station reach and frequency to drive impact. The number of weekly ads needed for the high impact/medium and launch/heavy station schedules is much higher than you think.”