The media agency Assembly is telling its clients to brace for an onslaught of political advertising that will impact inventory levels right into the 2024 holiday ad season. The agency is projecting a record $12 billion will be spent during the election cycle, including $3 billion in the presidential campaign alone. The remaining $9 billion will be spent on the down ballot races for Senate, U.S. House, Governor, and other state and local offices.
“The most fascinating part about the $12 billion number is it's not spread evenly across all 210 DMAs. It is, in fact, concentrated on fewer hot markets than we've ever seen before,” says Tyler Goldberg, Director of Political Strategy at Assembly. “Depending on where you are, you may see an absolute torrent of political ads, or you may not see any at all.”
Assembly expects 2024 to have significantly fewer competitive statewide races than in 2022, but that will not mean less spending. Instead, it says the importance of the races that are competitive will be amplified. “This will lead to an incredible amount of political spending which will manifest itself in several record-breaking campaigns,” the agency says in a just-released outlook.
California Tops State List
Leading Assembly’s list is California, which will not be competitive in the presidential contest, but the state will feature a U.S. Senate race and at least 10 competitive districts that could determine control of the U.S. House. Alan Srochi, Senior Manager of Political Strategy at Assembly, says in the coming weeks stations in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento can all expect to start seeing ad buys as candidates enter the race ahead of the March 5 primary.
“It's also worth noting that California has seen an incredible amount of spending regarding ballot initiatives,” Srochi says. “We don't know exactly what will be on the ballot come November 2024 but California has shown itself to be a proving ground for a lot of spend in the sector.”
Assembly also pegs North Carolina as a state that will be more active for political advertising. While it is not the swing state that it once was, Srochi says it is one of the “second-tier swing states” that could determine the outcome of the election. “The main reason however, that we have rated North Carolina as a state of interest is because of this upcoming race for the gubernatorial seat,” he says. There are also a few House races of significance. “All of these factors have gone into rating Charlotte, in particular, as a market of high intensity throughout the duration of 2024,” he says.
High Intensity In Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is also where political ad intensity will be high according to Assembly. Not only is the Keystone State in play for the presidential race, but there is also a U.S. Senate race that has already attracted some big spenders. “Pennsylvania has numerous House races that will be very competitive, a lot of which will be centered around Wilkes Barre-Scranton, while also in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia,” Srochi predicts.
Arizona could go either way in the presidential election, and it also has a Senate race that is going to be highly competitive. For both those reasons, Srochi says the state bears watching with lots of unsettled factors making it very unpredictable for advertisers. But while Pennsylvania political dollars will be spread across several markets, Assembly expects most of the money in Arizona to flood into the Phoenix market, and Tucson to a lesser extent. “Inventory is going to be crushed in these markets more so than perhaps in Philadelphia and Pennsylvania,” Srochi says.
Las Vegas Leads Market List
Nevada is also expected to be a state where there is a lot of political spending, as it too has a competitive U.S. Senate race, in addition to being a swing state in the presidential election. Add to that numerous competitive House races. Assembly says the bulk of spending will be in Las Vegas, which the agency has rated as the highest political intensity market in the country for 2024.
“As an advertiser, this is something that you absolutely have to take into your calculus,” Srochi says. “Political advertising is unavoidable. And it is going to be a factor in anyone's media strategy, regardless of where you are.”
In addition to facing inventory issues, he expects it will be important for advertisers to understand the sentiments of the consumers.
“Commercial advertisers don't exist in a vacuum,” Srochi says. “They'll be playing alongside these political ads.”