Magna Sees U.S. Ad Spend Hitting All-Time High Despite Trade Worries.

Economists say the labor market and consumer spending have proven resilient despite the risk that tariffs will hike costs. Now, the ad giant Magna is adding advertising to that list of indicators where any potential headwinds are being overcome. Magna’s Global Ad Forecast summer update predicts U.S. ad spending will reach an all-time high of $398 billion in 2025, growing 4.6% compared to a year ago. Not only is that a potential record-setting outlook, but Magna has scaled back how much it thinks the tariffs will sap growth. Its original forecast for this year called for 4.9% gains last December, but it scaled that back to 4.3% in March. Forecasters are now splitting the difference with their 4.6% projection.

“Magna still expects quarterly growth rates to slow in the next three quarters but also still expects resilience in the marketplace, as the macro-economic indicators gradually stabilize,” the forecast says. Magna says that it saw stronger-than-expected growth in ad spending of 9.1% during the first quarter in the U.S. ad market excluding cyclical factors like political spending. That was despite the deterioration in investor and consumer confidence related to the tariffs.

Based on current estimates, the agency predicts the U.S. ad market will see 6.9% growth this year when excluding cyclical ad spending, which is down from a 9.9% increase recorded in 2024.

The outlook continues to direct traditional media owners to continue investing in their digital businesses. Magna projects overall audio sales will drop 2% to $15.9 billion this year. But it’s a story of two different results for two different channels. Magna estimates digital audio ad spending will jump 3.7% year-to-year to $3.4 billion, while over-the-air radio ad spending will decline 3.2% to $12.2 billion. The commonality between both is that Magna does not see any softening of audio spending from when it released its spring update.

Across the U.S. ad market overall, Magna forecasts traditional media owners will see a 1.2% dip in ad spending this year when factoring out cyclical impacts like political or Olympic spending. It sees radio having modestly better results this year than local TV stations, which it forecasts will experience a 3.7% dip, or a 27% drop when political factors are taken into account. At the same time, Magna sees overall digital spending increasing 9.6% compared to a year ago.

Magna is also offering its first 2026 estimates, saying it expects U.S. ad spend to re-accelerate in 2026, and benefit from the midterm election, Olympics, and the World Cup. It forecasts total U.S. ad spending will grow 7.8% next year, with non-cyclical spending up 6.1% year-to-year.

Magna’s update is global, and the worldwide outlook has plenty of echoes of what it thinks will occur in the U.S. during the second half of the year. It projects global ad revenue will increase 4.9% from 2024 to $979 million. “The market slowdown is still real, but more modest,” it says, noting last year the ad market had a 10.3% growth rate.

The outlook includes better results for digital media, while it thinks traditional media spending will erode by 3% around the globe. “Traditional media owners, historically focused on television, audio, publishing, out of home, and cinema, may be most affected by the absence of major events and the deteriorating business environment,” the report says. Magna estimates global radio spending will slip 1.1% this year. And while it doesn’t offer a global digital audio prediction, the agency says the segment benefits from overall 8% growth projected for digital pureplay media spending.

“Magna had long anticipated a slowdown in the global advertising market in 2025 following an exceptionally strong 2024,” says Vincent Létang, Executive VP of Global Market Research at Magna. “So far, the slowdown has been relatively modest. Digital media, in particular, performed better than expected in the first quarter.”

While Magna expects total advertising spending to grow in 2025, several industry verticals may be challenged by economic slowdown, supply chain and trade disruptions. Technology, pharmaceuticals, retail, and automotive appear to be most at risk.

It says the auto segment is on particularly shaky ground. With no clear outlook on how trade policy will evolve, how supply chains will need to adjust, or how long these headwinds will last, Magna says many auto brands may pull back on marketing expense—specifically upper-funnel, traditional advertising formats like TV or radio—in coming months.

On the other hand, it says several other large industry verticals should be relatively immune to international trade uncertainty, including consumer packaged goods, finance, insurance, telecoms, healthcare, and travel.

“Magna believes that the marketing industry has learned important lessons from the COVID period,” says Létang. “Recognizing the value of maintaining consistent communication and adopting balanced media strategies, especially during times of consumer uncertainty.”