Madison And Wall Sees New Opportunities For Audio.

The media consulting firm Madison and Wall is boosting its advertising outlook for 2026, a move that comes despite risks of spiking inflation tied to energy costs. The firm expects U.S. total advertising spending will expand 8.1% this year, up from its previous estimate of 6.6% growth. And when the potential benefits of midterm political ad dollars are added, it says the market will grow by as much as 10.2%.

“Advertisers have been raising budgets across the board. That's part of why our 2026 forecast had to go up,” Managing Director Luke Stillman said. “Especially considering this uncertain global economy environment with inflationary headwinds, it's been remarkably strong,”

The year began with a tailwind. Madison and Wall says the U.S. ad market grew 15.5% during the fourth quarter, capping off a year when every quarter had double-digit growth. For audio, the firm says revenue grew by 0.4% during the fourth quarter. While a small gain, it was the first quarterly gain Madison and Wall has logged since late-2022.

“Fourth quarter was the strongest quarter we have on record, when you take out those 2021 COVID recovery years,” Stillman said. “It was just really strong in every format — notably above where it has been in recent quarters. For audio, it’s a case of a rising tide lifts all ships.”

But Stillman said during an interview that audio’s tide isn’t turning entirely. Instead, the firm expects total audio ad revenue to slip 1% in 2026, continuing a multi-year trend of gradual declines that have slowed in recent years. By comparison, the category was down roughly 3% in 2024 and about 2% in 2025, suggesting the rate of erosion is moderating even as the market remains slightly negative.

Digital audio continues to be the industry’s bright spot. Madison and Wall forecasts digital audio advertising — which includes, broadcaster streaming revenue, podcast advertising, and music streaming services — will grow 4% in 2026. At the same time, traditional audio advertising tied to broadcast radio is projected to fall about 4%.

Programmatic buying may be a potential way to bring in more dollars. It is also expected to grow rapidly, with spending on programmatic audio advertising forecast to increase by roughly 28% this year as companies like iHeartMedia have announced plans to bring broadcast ad inventory in the programmatic sales platforms used by advertisers. But Stillman cautioned the category remains relatively small, and is expanding from a low base.

“It’s pretty strong growth, but it still represents a small share — even for digital audio,” Stillman said. “Our expectation for audio, just like we see in TV and print, is digital is going to keep growing, but it's not growing enough to fully offset the declines in the legacy business.”

The broader issue facing the audio industry, according to Stillman, is where the incremental advertising dollars are flowing. Most of the growth in ad spending continues to concentrate within a handful of large digital platforms, often referred to as “walled gardens.” As a result, even stable or growing advertiser budgets do not necessarily translate into stronger results for traditional media channels.

Stillman suggested audio companies still have opportunities to slow potential declines if they make their inventory easier for advertisers to buy. That could include expanding programmatic access, forming partnerships with large digital platforms, or improving measurement and attribution tools.

“Maximizing the convenience to access the inventory is a big part of moving the needle,” he said. “Advertisers have shown they really value convenience, so any way to make it easier for them to buy inventory, whether that's going on programmatic platforms or partnering with other big digital platforms to have some sort of combined offering, we think helps advertisers engage with audio.”