In A Surging Political Ad Cycle, Local Races Create Openings For Radio.

The political advertising clouds are forming, but how much of those dollars will rain upon radio remains to be seen. BIA Advisory Services projects approximately $8.4 billion in local political spending, of which 2.7%, or $221.6 million, is forecast to go into local broadcast radio advertising. Plus, another $71 million is expected to be spent on digital audio ads.

“Ultimately, this is a video business. It has been, and it probably always will be, and that makes it really hard for radio,” says Silver Oak Political President Steve Passwaiter, who is also a BIA advisor. He says media planners like radio’s ability to extend the reach of a campaign, but the hurdle has been, and remains, Washington’s political consultant class.

“Some of these guys are starting to dig in a little bit more on the digital audio side, and that’s good,” Passwaiter says. “But lot of times it’s the consultants tell them to take over-the-air off.”

However, that doesn’t mean radio is out of the political game. Developments like the Supreme Court decision that has turned the abortion debate into a state-by-state issue have resulted in millions of dollars being spent on down-ballot races like state legislature and court seats, as well as ballot measures. It’s there that Passwaiter — who will be speaking at the NAB Show next week — says radio is much better positioned.

“There is more money starting to go into these down-ballot races. And anytime the decision-makers are closer to home, that has a beneficial effect for local media providers since they have more opportunity to move the needle in their favor,” he tells Inside Radio.

Passwaiter says he also consistently hears from DC political operatives that the national rep firms like Katz Media Group have done a good job covering the Washington ad buyers.

“If you’re going to make a stake in the business, make it closer to home where you may have a better chance to actually get to the people who are making the decisions, as opposed to what happens in DC,” he suggests.

Potentially fueling the political category this cycle is a more active primary season. Passwaiter points out there have been a large number of retirements, especially among House members. And as demonstrated by the Texas U.S. Senate primary, which has gone to a runoff, millions are being spent just to secure a place on November’s ballot.

“There is a ton of intensity, and everybody is competing for voice.” Passwaiter says. “It’s an upside for the sector as a whole, because that competition drives the level of donations — and that’s what drives all this political ad spending.”

BIA says local television will remain the biggest winner in the political ad derby in 2026. Despite more people watching video streaming services, the fact that mid-terms typically draw a greater number of older voters will work in traditional TV’s favor. BIA expects it to pocket $3.23 billion, or 38% of what is spent in local markets this year.

The disparity with radio’s share may have some sales managers questioning how much effort they should put into an ad category that has traditionally been tough to crack — especially as sales teams are smaller than in the past.

Passwaiter says he has heard the frustration of many in radio, and while each company needs to make their own decision how much effort to put into it, he also points out overall spending has continued to climb higher. It means radio’s share may’ve shrunk, but the category still puts hundreds of millions of dollars into radio. “It’s hard to look at something that big and just say we’ll take what we can get,” he says.

RAB President Mike Hulvey will be interviewing Steve Passwaiter at the NAB Show next week during a session “Election 2026: Capturing Radio’s Political Ad Opportunity in the Midterms” on Monday, April 20 at 3:30pm PT in the TV and Radio HQ Theater.