The digital ad market is proving to be stronger in 2024 than originally predicted, and that has led the Interactive Advertising Bureau to revise its outlook for spending gains this year — including for audio. The IAB now forecasts the overall digital ad market will grow 11.8% on a year-over-year basis vs. its earlier 9.5% projected increase from last November.
Driving the changes is an acceleration in the ad market in recent months. Powered by election ad spending and other cyclical events, the IAB says digital ad spending is on pace to jump 16% in the second half of 2024. That compares with a 7.9% growth rate during the first half of this year.
“Nearly all channels are expected to post higher growth rates year over year,” IAB says in the update.
Podcasting is getting one of the bigger upward revisions. IAB now estimates total ad spending on podcasting will grow 12.6% this year. That is a three-point improvement over its earlier forecast. And it is not just on-demand audio. IAB says digital audio ad spending, excluding podcasts, will also grow at a faster rate. It sees ad spending on digital audio ad spending climbing 8.3% this year vs. its earlier projected 6% growth rate.
Digital audio’s share of total ad spending is also seen expanding. The IAB now estimates podcasting will capture 5.4% of total ad dollars spent by marketers this year. That is more than a third better than the 3.8% share it had projected last November. Digital audio not including podcasts will add another 3.6% share, giving non-broadcast audio an overall share of 9%, according to the IAB forecast.
Television is seeing the fastest rebound in spending, thanks to its role in election advertising along with events like the Olympics. But it is connected TV and not broadcast TV that will grow the fastest, according to the IAB. It forecasts CTV ad spending will lead all media channels, with an 18.4% year-over-year increase in ad spending forecast in 2024. That compares with a 4.3% growth rate for linear TV.
“Digital video continues to claim the largest share of ad spend while traditional media’s share declines,” the IAB update says. “Despite a temporary boost from cyclical events, Linear TV’s share of ad spend continues to decline alongside other traditional media, reflecting the continued shift towards digital platforms.”
The IAB credits fading worries about the overall economy for the revisions. “The resilient economy, marked by a 2.3% rise in consumer spending in Q2 2024, has eased buyers’ concerns,” it says. While 49% of buyers said last November they were worried about a slowing economy, today 38% have that concern.
The IAB survey points to other more pressing concerns in the minds of advertisers. Forty-six percent say one of their greatest concerns is executive cross-channel media measurement, while 36% are concerned about media inflation, and 23% are trying to understand generative AI.
Of particular concern to podcasters, the IAB says roughly one in five (22%) of the marketers it surveyed last month said their greatest worries were related to ensuring brand safety and suitability. However, this is consistent with the 23% who mentioned it last November, even after the World Federation of Advertisers decided to discontinue the Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM) and the standards it offered to the marketplace.
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