Edison’s Larry Rosin: Three-Minute Rule Opens Door To Shorter Radio Spot Breaks.

Nielsen’s new three-minute rule couldn’t have come at a better time, says Edison Research President Larry Rosin. He says the ratings company’s move from a five- to a three-minute qualifier needed for quarter-hour credit opens the door to rethinking radio spot breaks, which he hopes will also convince broadcasters to shift away from two lengthy stop-sets each hour. He believes that’s weakening radio’s hand when it comes to competing with new audio options available to consumers.

Speaking at the NAB Show, Rosin said Edison’s Share of Ear data motivated him to propose changes. It shows that the typical American 13 and older spends three hours and 54 minutes per day with radio, or about a third (34%) of their audio listening time. That may sound like a lot, but when Share of Ear launched in 2014, broadcast radio had a 53% share. There may not be any definitive proof, but Rosin said it appears ad loads can be linked to decreased listening.

“In general, commercial radio has increased spot loads during this time,” Rosin said. “But spot loads are not the only reason.”

He points to Share of Ear data showing how the competitive audio universe has also been a factor. Music streamers, YouTube and podcasting have each seen their shows climb. At the same time, digital advertisers have gone after radio’s advertisers.

“Radio has encountered a lot of pressure on revenue, the reaction has often been to increase spot loads,” Rosin said. “And Americans will pay to get out of ads. People get so annoyed that they see value in getting commercials out of content.”

How Many Ads Is Radio Airing?

For at least the past decade, radio has looked for ways to reduce advertising volume, but those efforts to cut loads have largely proven unworkable in the long term. The result, Media Monitors data shows, is that the typical station airs 22 units of ads per hour each weekday. While the number varies by daypart, in no hour is the average below 17 units.

In terms of minutes, the hour-by-hour loads range from an average high of 12.5 minutes in the 6am hour to a low of 10.4 minutes in the noon hour — not including promos.

“Fewer and much longer breaks have become the trend,” said Rosin. He says PPM strategy pushed programmers to embrace the so-called bowtie approach to the hourly clock and post ads at the end of the first and third quarter hours — roughly around 11- and 41-minutes past. Using that, programmers could improve their quarter-hour maintenance under PPM methodology. But the result was two breaks an hour that went beyond what listeners, or their brains, could absorb, said Rosin.

“When a break is really long and you’re in an environment where you can easily change the station, you will,” Rosin said. “Given the human brain, even if you stay engaged for a handful of commercials, even if you don’t physically tune out, eventually your brain is going to tune out.”

Rosin thinks the real problem is that programmers and managers have been too focused on their station’s share of radio listening, and not a better understanding of the “infinite dial” of all the other audio competition. “We have to reconceive what we’re doing,” he said.

New Nielsen Opportunity

The ballyhooed idea of charging more for fewer ads has proven untenable. But Rosen sees other potential solutions that could help the industry rework its spot breaks and help keep listeners engaged. “Even if you can’t lower total inventory, the time has come to consider more shorter breaks,” he said.

Rosin said that while spanning the quarter hour remains meaningful, the shift from five- to three-minute qualifiers conceivably means the twice-per-hour spot blitzes could start to go away. Hints of how that could boost radio listening come from a 2011 study by Arbitron and Coleman Research. Using Media Monitors data, it showed that when stop-sets were two or three minutes long, 96% of listeners stuck through.

“You do have to remember that our listeners are making a bargain with us,” Rosin said. “They are listening to commercials in exchange for the information in the commercials, entertainment and companionship — all of the things that make radio great. But just like any bargain, the problem comes in when we’re not being fair with our side of the bargain. We have tilted the bargain in an unfair way against our listeners.”

In addition to shifting how breaks are placed, Rosin also thinks programmers need to begin considering all their competitors, whether they’re streamers, podcasts or other stations.

“The insularity of radio really hurts it and leads to things like seven-minute spot breaks,” he said.