The latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows a resilient U.S. economy and near-zero inflation for retail goods in June.
“Consumers are being thoughtful about their spending, prioritizing non-discretionary purchases as they continue to face high interest rates and lingering inflation,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “Inflation has dropped to nearly zero for goods, but remains persistent with services, and solid economic fundamentals are helping consumers make ends meet. Month-over-month sales growth was moderate in June, and year-over-year gains for total retail sales were the largest we’ve seen since last fall.”
According to the latest data from the Retail Monitor, total retail sales, not including cars and gasoline, showed a 0.47% increase month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in June. On an unadjusted year-over-year basis, they rose by 3.42%. May saw a 1.35% monthly increase and a 3.03% yearly increase.
Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants as well as cars and gasoline, rose 0.3% month over month in June and by 3.07% YoY. This contrasts with increases of 1.2% and 2.88% respectively in May.
Total sales showed a year-over-year increase of 2.39% during the first six months of this year, while core sales experienced a 2.62% rise. This marks the highest year-over-year gain for total sales since November, when it was 4.24%, and for core sales since January, when it reached 3.24%.
In contrast to survey-based figures gathered by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor relies on real-time, anonymized credit and debit card transaction data provided by Affinity Solutions. This data does not require monthly or annual revisions.
During June, sales increased year-over-year in five out of nine retail categories, driven primarily by online sales, general merchandise stores, and clothing and accessory stores. Additionally, sales showed monthly growth in four categories.
Specifics from key sectors:
Online and other non-store sales: +1.78% MoM seasonally adjusted, +23.08% YoY unadjusted.
General merchandise stores: +0.61% MoM seasonally adjusted; +5.79% YoY unadjusted.
Clothing and accessories stores: -0.11% MoM seasonally adjusted; +5.35% YoY unadjusted.
Health and personal care stores: -0.04% MoM seasonally adjusted; +4.63% YoY unadjusted.
Grocery and beverage stores: +1.01% MoM seasonally adjusted; +4.31% YoY unadjusted.
Sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores: +0.68% MoM seasonally adjusted; -0.52% YoY unadjusted.
Electronics and appliance stores: -1.02% MoM seasonally adjusted; -3.24% YoY unadjusted.
Furniture and home furnishings stores: -0.62% MoM seasonally adjusted; -3.26% YoY unadjusted.
Building and garden supply stores: -1.8% MoM seasonally adjusted; -3.46% YoY unadjusted.
The National Retail Federation provides data on retail sales each month and forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
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