Claritas: Five Trends Shaping Holiday Shopping, Marketing.

Retailers are heading into the 2026 holiday shopping season with expectations for sales growth, but inflation, increasingly selective consumers and changing shopping habits are creating new challenges for marketers, according to an analysis from data and marketing services company Claritas.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that U.S. retail sales in November and December will increase 4.2% from a year earlier. Forrester projects holiday sales growth of 5.1%, while holiday e-commerce sales are expected to rise 11.6%.

However, much of the projected growth is being driven by higher prices rather than increased consumer demand, according to Claritas. Shoppers are comparing prices, delaying purchases and abandoning online shopping carts, making it more difficult for retailers to convert consumer interest into sales.

In a report outlining five trends expected to influence the holiday season, Claritas Senior Marketing Manager Malik Kamagate said retailers will need more precise audience targeting and personalized marketing strategies to compete.

One significant challenge is the growing divide between higher- and lower-income households. While wealthier consumers continue to make purchases with relative confidence, lower-income shoppers are weighing holiday spending against higher costs for necessities such as groceries and gasoline.

Retailers will need to distinguish between consumers seeking premium merchandise and those prioritizing discounts and affordability. Understanding regional differences in demand also will be important for determining inventory levels, promotions and staffing, the report said.

A second trend involves the continued growth of e-commerce and the increasingly interconnected nature of online and in-store shopping.

Forrester expects online purchases to account for nearly 60% of incremental holiday sales, despite representing slightly more than one-quarter of total retail sales. Consumers frequently move between smartphones, computers and physical stores before completing purchases.

That behavior makes it increasingly important for retailers to recognize individual shoppers across platforms and coordinate inventory and fulfillment. Services such as buy online, pick up in store also require accurate customer identification and real-time inventory information.

Artificial intelligence is another emerging influence on holiday shopping. Consumers increasingly use AI chatbots to research unfamiliar or complicated purchases, while relying on brand websites for established or expensive products and online marketplaces for everyday merchandise.

Claritas said retailers must ensure product information is accurate and consistent so their merchandise can be identified and recommended by AI shopping assistants. Marketers also must understand where different consumer groups search for products and adjust advertising accordingly.

The report’s fourth trend involves the need for more relevant promotional messages. With holiday discounts appearing earlier and across multiple marketing channels, generic offers are becoming less effective.

Claritas recommends tailoring promotions to individual audiences, whether they are interested in premium merchandise or lower-priced products. Its AI personalization technology, the company said, improves campaign performance by an average of 15%.

Finally, retailers will face greater pressure to demonstrate that advertising expenditures are generating measurable results.

Higher prices can increase revenue even when the number of products sold remains relatively flat, making sales totals alone an incomplete measure of performance. Claritas said retailers need to identify which campaigns are producing conversions and shift spending toward the most effective channels.

Its measurement platform tracks conversions across eight online and offline channels, including audio and podcast advertising.

The report concludes that retailers will need to combine audience data, personalized marketing, multichannel advertising and performance measurement to capitalize on holiday spending opportunities.

AI can help improve those efforts, Claritas said, but its effectiveness depends on the quality of underlying consumer data and the ability to measure results across platforms.