Borrell Forecasts $174 Billion In Local Ad Spending By 2030.

Local advertising will reach an estimated $150 billion in 2026 and grow to $174 billion by 2030, but digital media will capture an increasingly dominant share of that spending, according to Borrell Associates’ updated forecast presented during its “Local Advertising Reshuffled: Borrell’s New Forecasts for 2027 and Beyond” webinar.

The forecast calls for local ad spending to increase about 4.1% annually from 2025 through 2030, including 3.9% growth in 2027, adding about $5.2 billion in local advertising dollars. Digital’s share will climb from 71% in 2025 to 80% by 2030.

“That other 20% in 2030 doesn’t vanish,” CEO Gordon Borrell said, noting that traditional media will still represent approximately $35 billion in local advertising.

Online video is expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the shift. Spending is projected to increase from $24.7 billion in 2025 to $39.9 billion in 2030, representing approximately 10% annual growth. It is expected to surpass general paid search in 2028, although paid search and listing search combined will remain the largest local advertising category.

Borrell Associates includes streaming and connected TV, YouTube publisher players, social video feeds and streaming from local broadcast and cable stations in its online video category. For broadcasters, that means streaming revenue is counted as online video rather than traditional television.

Among traditional media, radio is projected to generate $5.8 billion in local advertising in 2030, while newspapers face steeper declines. Television is forecast to produce $7.6 billion, with direct mail reaching $6.3 billion.

The updated forecast incorporates multiple independent data sources, including government business counts, tax records, more than 130 company filings and industry trackers. While Borrell said the definition of local advertising remains unchanged — spending by a business to reach customers in its own market — approximately one-third of the business categories tracked in Borrell’s Compass tool have been added or redefined.

The changes provide greater visibility into previously grouped businesses, including equipment rental, roofing, plastic surgery and online sellers.

That additional detail also highlights opportunities beyond the traditional advertiser categories pursued by local media companies. Equipment rental advertising is projected to grow 6.3% in 2027, while mental health services are forecast to increase 5.8%. By comparison, HVAC advertising is projected to grow just 0.7%.

The difference, Borrell and Executive VP of Local Market Intelligence Corey Elliott explained, often comes down to where businesses allocate their advertising budgets. Categories with greater digital spending shares generally experience faster growth. Windows, siding and doors, for example, devote a larger share of their budgets to traditional media, including radio and television.

“Sometimes when you're sitting inside of a local media company, sometimes you get blinders on,” Elliott said. “When you see this kind of data, you're like, ‘Whoa!’ Well, now wait a minute. What can we offer equipment rental?”

Borrell also cautioned against relying exclusively on national advertising trends. Local markets can have substantially different spending patterns, making market-specific research important when identifying prospects and determining where sales efforts should be concentrated.

The webinar also examined what advertisers increasingly expect from media companies. Drawing on years of advertiser research, Borrell identified four priorities: guidance on how much to spend, trusted recommendations, help attracting customers and advice on the appropriate media mix.

Advertisers are increasingly overwhelmed by the complexity of digital marketing, particularly platforms such as Facebook and Instagram, Borrell said. Although many businesses consider those platforms their strongest return-on-investment channels, they still need outside expertise to evaluate their options.

“They want that trusted advisor,” Borrell said. “But there's a certain way that you can get to be a trusted advisor, and a certain way that many of you are doing that is really screwing it up.”

He pointed to customer-needs analyses that effectively steer advertisers toward whatever the media company happens to be selling, rather than providing genuinely objective recommendations.