Black Friday-Cyber Monday Sales To Top $85 Billion.

U.S. retail sales during the Black Friday-through-Cyber Monday shopping period are expected to exceed $85 billion this year, an 8.75% increase from 2025, according to a new forecast from Bain & Company.

The four-day period is projected to account for 8.5% of total U.S. holiday sales in 2026. The expected growth also would outpace Bain’s forecast of 4.5% growth for the overall holiday shopping season.

Black Friday is expected to remain the leading sales day of the holiday season, with 64% of surveyed consumers planning to shop that day, up from 55% in 2025. Cyber Monday also is gaining popularity, with 44% of respondents planning to shop vs. 41% last year.

Overall, 70% of U.S. consumers surveyed by Bain said they intend to shop on Black Friday, Cyber Monday or both, up from 64% in 2025. More than 90% plan to shop during those events or another major sales period.

Despite the growing importance of Thanksgiving weekend, retailers should not overlook the final two weekends before Christmas. Six of the 10 biggest sales days in 2025 fell during that period, according to Bain.

The consulting firm also forecasts that U.S. holiday sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, supported by both in-store purchases and e-commerce.

“Black Friday and Cyber Monday are becoming increasingly important battlegrounds for retailers, especially as U.S. consumers prioritize value and deal-heavy shopping days,” says Aaron Cheris, Global Head of Retail at Bain & Company. “Retailers that capitalize on these crucial sales days with personalized promotions, can’t-miss events, and targeted campaigns will set themselves up well for the rest of the holiday shopping season.”

The forecast draws on proprietary credit card data from Pyxis, Bain’s consumer intelligence division, along with a survey of U.S. consumers.