Adobe Sees Record $275.1 Billion In U.S. Holiday Online Sales.

U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record $275.1 billion online during the 2026 holiday shopping season, according to Adobe Analytics, with spending projected to increase 6.7% from a year earlier.

Adobe’s forecast covers Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 and is based on an analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, 100 million stock-keeping units and 18 product categories.

Cyber Week, the five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to generate $47.5 billion in online sales, a 7.4% increase and 17.3% of total holiday spending.

Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) is projected to remain the season’s largest online shopping day, with $15.1 billion in sales, up 6.2%. Black Friday is expected to generate $12.9 billion, up 9.2%, giving it a faster growth rate than Cyber Monday. Adobe attributed the stronger Black Friday growth partly to deeper discounts on categories including televisions, apparel and appliances.

Thanksgiving is forecast to produce $6.9 billion in online sales, an 8.5% increase. Mobile devices are expected to account for a record 63% of Thanksgiving online spending vs. 61.6% in 2025. For the full holiday season, mobile is projected to represent 57.4% of online spending, up from 56.4% last year.

Electronics is expected to remain the largest online holiday category at $63.3 billion, followed by apparel at $51.3 billion. Adobe projects stronger year-over-year growth in grocery, at 10.3% to $26.1 billion; toys, at 9.6% to $9.6 billion; cosmetics, at 9.5% to $9.2 billion; and furniture, at 7.3% to $33.4 billion.

Holiday shopping also is expected to begin earlier. Adobe forecasts $95.8 billion in online spending during October, an 8% increase. The Oct. 6-7 Prime Day event is projected to generate $9.9 billion, up 9.2%, as promotions increasingly extend beyond Amazon and into the broader retail market.

Discounting is expected to play a major role in driving purchases. Adobe forecasts discounts of as much as 30% during Cyber Week, with promotions reaching up to 14% in early November, 21% before Thanksgiving and 10% to 15% throughout December.

Adobe also expects shoppers to use those promotions to purchase everyday necessities, rather than limiting holiday deal hunting to gifts. During Cyber Week, online sales of clothing basics are projected to rise 210% from September’s average sales levels, while personal hygiene products are expected to increase 150%. Baby products, pet products and household cleaning supplies also are projected to see significant gains.

The forecast also calls for online sales through Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services to reach $21.3 billion during November and December, up 6.6%. BNPL spending is projected at $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday and $807 million on Black Friday.

Adobe expects AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail websites to increase 130% during the holiday season, while affiliates, partners and social media are projected to capture a larger share of online revenue. The company said affiliate and partner revenue share is expected to rise 12%, while social media’s share is projected to increase 17%.