With revised forecasts from GroupM and Magna, which both boosted their global ad outlooks for 2021, the consensus on Madison Avenue is for a gain of 10.6% in worldwide ad spending, MediaPost reports. That’s a 3.3 percentage point improvement from January 2020, when the Big 4 agency groups called for ad growth of 7.3% for 2021.
“As the economy recovers faster than expected globally – GDP +6% – and in most markets, so does marketing activity and advertising spending,” Magna said in its revised forecast. “With the added driver of rescheduled international sports events, Magna forecasts global all-media advertising spending to grow by $78 billion to $657 billion in 2021, a new all-time high.”
GroupM had similar forecasting guidance in its revised forecast. “Midway through 2021, it has become apparent that the market is growing much faster than we expected and from a larger base than we previously believed,” it said. “While many of these growth factors were in place before last year, the pandemic has proven to be an accelerant. Factors causing higher than expected growth include faster than expected expansions of app ecosystems, rapid small business formation activities and the growing role of cross-border media marketplaces.”
While the forecast seems rosy, there could still be some bumps in the road. “We must also consider the possibility that the Tokyo Olympic Games could still be canceled,” GroupM says. “Organizers continue to move forward with a July 23 opening, but public opinion in Japan is firmly against the games… Vaccination rates remain very low in Japan, and large parts of the country are under a state of emergency.”