As often happens, Inside Radio’s monthly analysis of Nielsen PPM cross-market average quarter-hour share data, covering Monday-to-Sunday 6am-midnight, shows trends in opposite directions for several formats when comparing recent month-to-month demo shares to those year-to-date since 2022.
In many cases, there’s good news for those formats when looking at the former, while the longer view shows a gradual downtrend — although there are notable exceptions where the reverse is true.
In the short term, the standout uptrend belongs to news/talk, where shares are up significantly from June through August across the board, likely driven by major news events such as the attempted assassination of former President Trump, President Biden’s exit from the 2024 Presidential race, and Vice President Harris’ swift acceptance as Biden’s replacement on the ticket. Over the course of those three Nielsen surveys, persons 6+ share gains 11.8%, with 18-34 share up 21.9%, 18-49s up 15.6%, and 25-54s 17%.
Comparing news/talk’s shares for the first eight months of 2022 to January-August 2024, however, 6+ is down 9.1%, 18-34 down 28.6%, 18-49 down 23.8%, and 25-54 down 21.9%, suggesting the format has a way to go to reach its former highs from two years ago.
Recent trends also suggest an upturn in the state of hit music, with reversals of fortune for both CHR and hot AC. While the 6+ January-to-August share gains are a modest 6.5% and 7.7% respectively, CHR is up 8.7% since March for 18-34, 7.8% since January among 18-49s, and 8.5% January-August for 25-54s. Hot AC shows a 16.3% lift since April in 18-34, while up 10.2% January-August for 18-49s, and 10.6% since January among 25-54s.
Again, this contrasts with the long view where, comparing the first eight months of 2022 with 2024-to-date, CHR is off 6% 6+, 12.2% 18-34, 4.3% 18-49, and 3.1% 25-54. Hot AC, meantime, is down 2.2% 6+, 5.4% 18-34, 7.3% 18-49, and 6% 25-54.
Trending in the other direction, with across-the-board lifts since 2022 but declines in all key demos during 2024, is contemporary Christian. While it’s been a growth format over the past two years — with a 20.7% rise in 6+, up 30.4% 18-34, and 22.2% for both 18-49s and 25-54s, most recently shares have fallen 21.2% since April for 18-34, and 16.7% and 18.9% since May for 18-49s and 25-54s, respectively.
It begs the question: Are there any “all-up” or “all-down” formats, based on Nielsen? For the former, urban AC may be the best bet, where share growth is more notable since 2023 vs. 2022, up 8.3% for 6+ and 10% 18-34, 7.1% 18-49, and 4.5% 25-54. Year-to-date, January-August shares are up 8% 6+, 12.2% 18-34, 16.7% 18-49, and 11.4% 25-54.
The closest to an “all-down” trend may be classic hits, but there are even exceptions there when taking a closer look, not to mention the downs aren’t really all that down. The yearly numbers show the format off just 1.7% 6+, 2% 18-34 and 18-49, and 3.7% 25-54. January-to-August sees 6+ off just 3.4%, but 18-34 up 6.3% with steady gains since May, 18-49 down 5.7% but also up from May, and 25-54 down 7.3%.
As for other formats, adult contemporary and sports both continue to show long-term growth but in-year declines, the latter more seasonally related than being a harbinger of future trends. Country and classic rock’s numbers are steady overall, although a July-to-August downturn for the former across all demos is worth watching in September’s survey. Modern/alternative rock is harder to peg, as it’s up in some demos and down in others using either measure.
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