The media research firm eMarketer has released its latest update to podcast advertising and it remains convinced the medium will top a billion dollars in revenue this year. In fact, eMarketer forecasts $1.28 billion in total podcast ad revenue for 2021, a 41% year-over-year increase. It is also larger than the $1.1 billion it projected last July.
Podcast will also continue to represent a larger share of digital audio advertising dollars according to eMarketer. Analysts estimate about one in five digital audio ad dollars last year were spent on a podcast. This year it will be one in four. And during the next few years that is expected to continue growing. By 2024, eMarketer predicts 29% of digital audio ads will go to podcasts.
In addition to a billion-dollar milestone, 2021 could bring another turning point according to analysts. This year, eMarketer says podcast listeners will represent 53.9% of monthly digital audio listeners, surpassing 50% for the first time. “We anticipate that more audio listeners will start listening to podcasts monthly, leading to a 60.9% share by 2024,” it said in a blog post.
Overall, there will be 117.8 million overall monthly podcast listeners in 2021, a 10.1% year-over-year increase according to eMarketer.
There is also another landmark on the horizon. Based on eMarketer’s latest forecast, it expects this is the year that Spotify will have more podcast listening than Apple Podcasts.
“This year, 28.2 million people will listen to podcasts on Spotify at least monthly, while 28.0 million will listen via Apple Podcasts. Spotify has experienced significant growth in recent years; the company will grow 41.3% this year,” it said.
The firm also believes that at least through 2023 there will be no turning back, with Spotify’s podcast consumption continuing to grow more quickly than Apple Podcasts, only expanding the gap between the two services.
Even though Apple Podcasts has been growing its download numbers, eMarketer says it has been losing its podcast listener share since the firm started tracking it in 2018. Three years ago, Apple had a 34% share. This year its share is estimated at 23.8%.