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Competitive Info: National Linear TV Revenue To Decline.


Even with expected higher TV revenues from the Paris Olympics and the presidential political advertising season, 2024 national TV advertising is projected to decline 2.6% to $27.6 billion, according to MoffettNathanson Research.


Overall national TV was previously estimated to be virtually flat — with a decline of just 0.2% — and without the Olympics, down 7.2% to $26.3 billion.


“We had initial concerns about the early promises of a second-half 2023 recovery,” writes Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst and cofounder at MoffettNathanson Research. “In all honesty, despite these concerns throughout the years, linear TV has ended up even worse than we expected.”


He added: “It is now clear that outside of sports advertising there should no longer be expectations of a recovery for linear TV advertising. Of course, there will always be noise in the ecosystem, with the Hollywood strikes and macro weakness appropriately taking some blame.


“That said, the strength digital advertising enjoyed throughout 2023 — with surprising macro strength helping propel a return to double-digit growth — limits any hope that a stronger economy may deliver a shift in momentum.”


Broadcast will be better off than cable linear TV networks, thanks to a return of original scripted entertainment after the 2023 writers/actors strikes.


Overall broadcast will rise 3.3% to $13.1 billion; cable will slide 7.4% to $14.5 billion.


According to Television News Daily, which reported on MoffettNathanson’s findings, things won’t get much better in 2025, especially with no Olympics or political advertising bumps. National TV is expected to decline another 12.3% to $24.2 billion. Taking out the Olympics, the market will still drop 7.9%. “This should be driven by continued pressure at U.S. cable networks while we expect more stability at broadcast networks thanks to sports.”


Nathanson adds that digital/connected TV advertising will play a strong role, especially advertising video-on-demand (AVOD) platforms. “The launch and growth of new ad-supported tiers at Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and Disney+ should pull an even greater share of dollars away from linear TV.”


For example, AVOD is estimated to rise 35.2% to $13.8 billion. A big rise will come from Amazon Prime Video, which added an advertising option starting in January of this year, “bringing overnight a flood of new inventory into the CTV [connected TV] market.”


Projections are that Amazon will pull in $1.98 billion in advertising revenue from Prime Video, which would rocket it to second place behind Hulu. The Disney-owned streamer is estimated to total $3.08 billion in ad revenue in 2024.


It also estimates Peacock to get to $1.82 billion; Netflix to total $1.77 billion; and Disney+ to get to $420 million.

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